Belgian Gas Reserves at Critical Low Ahead of Winter

Belgium’s underground gas storage facility in Loenhout is only 23.75% full as of May 11, 2026 — a critically low level that has raised concerns about energy security and potential price increases for consumers ahead of the next heating season. At the same time last year, reserves stood at 62.21%, more than 2.5 times higher, according to Het Laatste Nieuws.

A Troubling Trend Across Europe

The low fill rate is not unique to Belgium. EU gas storage currently sits at 35.36% capacity, down from 42.47% at the same point last year. European gas storage injections since April have been running 20% below the five-year average, as reported by the European Gas Hub.

The last time Belgian reserves were this low was 2022, the year of the European energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The EU mandates that member states fill gas storage to at least 90% of capacity by November 1 each year, though in March 2026 the European Commission temporarily relaxed this target to 80% with a December 1 deadline to avoid a price rush, as VRT NWS reported.

Why Reserves Are So Low

Several factors have converged to create the current shortfall. The summer-winter price spread — the profit incentive for traders to store gas — has turned negative, meaning traders lose money by injecting gas now for winter use. LNG supply has tightened due to ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with Atlantic Basin cargoes being redirected toward higher-paying Asian markets.

Belgium’s storage capacity is modest — approximately 8 TWh, covering only about 5% of its annual gas demand. The Loenhout facility, operated by Fluxys, is Belgium’s main underground storage, with a capacity equivalent to the annual gas consumption of 450,000 households, according to Fluxys.

Expert Perspectives

Fluxys has confirmed that the “filling season” is starting slower this year but sees “no reason to panic,” noting that private gas traders such as ENI and Engie reserve storage volumes and decide when to inject.

However, Matthias Detremmerie, an energy buyer at Elindus, warns that if the 90% target is not met, government subsidies may be introduced. “Those subsidies would then possibly end up on the consumer’s bill through higher taxes or distribution tariffs,” Detremmerie told HLN.

Energy consultant Dieter Jong, quoted in VRT’s coverage from March 2026, noted that after the 2022 crisis, significant investment was made in LNG capacity expected to come to market in 2026-2027. “Until a few weeks ago, there was even a fear of structural oversupply, but now we’re facing shortages,” Jong said.

Johan Albrecht, an energy economist at Ghent University, offered a more measured perspective: “The gas price has naturally risen sharply since the start of the war in Iran. But don’t forget: the gas price had fallen sharply in 2025. Actually, we’re now only slightly higher than the level of January 2025.”

Consumer Impact and Recommendations

The TTF gas price currently stands at €47.375/MWh, with no structural decline following the price spike in early March 2026. Consumers on variable-rate contracts are most exposed to potential price increases this autumn and winter.

Detremmerie advises consumers to consider fixed-rate contracts. “That way you avoid exposure to potentially higher prices in the autumn,” he said. However, a fixed-rate gas contract currently costs approximately €300 more per year than a variable-rate contract.

Geopolitical Context

The low reserve levels must be viewed against a backdrop of significant geopolitical uncertainty. The war in Iran, which began in early 2026, has disrupted global energy markets. Ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect LNG supply routes, while US trade policy under the Trump administration adds further volatility.

Despite sanctions, Russian LNG exports to Europe remain resilient, with Belgium among the top importers. The country’s position as a transit hub — with the Zeebrugge LNG terminal serving as a redistribution point for northwestern Europe — provides some buffer, but global LNG competition is intensifying.

What to Watch For

Whether Belgium can meet the EU’s relaxed 80% fill target by December 1 remains uncertain. Key factors include the evolution of the Iran conflict, winter severity, LNG availability, and whether the Belgian government introduces storage subsidies. The new LNG capacity expected in 2026-2027 could provide relief, but its timing remains unclear.

For now, Belgian consumers face a winter of uncertainty, with energy prices that have fallen somewhat from their March peaks but remain elevated — and storage levels that offer little margin for error.