Belgian Supermarket Prices Fall Despite Surging Inflation

Belgian shoppers are witnessing an unusual economic paradox: supermarket prices are falling across all major chains even as the country’s inflation rate surges to 4.01%. Economist Pierre-Alexandre Billiet describes the situation as “economically abnormal” and warns that consumers could face a severe “price shock” when retailers can no longer absorb rising costs.

Context: Inflation at 4.01% While Shelf Prices Drop

According to official data from Statbel, Belgium’s consumer price index jumped from 1.65% in March to 4.01% in April 2026, driven primarily by surging energy costs. Natural gas prices rose 22.9% month-on-month, electricity increased by 5.4%, and motor fuels climbed 12.3%. Geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran, have contributed significantly to this energy-driven inflation spike.

Yet despite these macro-economic pressures, a comparative basket study by HLN (Het Laatste Nieuws) found that prices across all major supermarket chains — Albert Heijn, Delhaize, Colruyt, Aldi, Lidl, and Carrefour — decreased between late February and mid-May 2026. Albert Heijn recorded the largest drop at approximately 7%, followed by Delhaize at 5.5%. Colruyt remains the cheapest overall chain, while Aldi and Lidl are locked in an intensely competitive battle.

Everyday items illustrate the trend. The price of bananas fell from €1.29/kg to €1.15/kg across multiple chains. At Albert Heijn, iceberg lettuce dropped below €0.90, down from €1.29 just a few months earlier.

Economist Warns of Unsustainable Price War

Pierre-Alexandre Billiet, economist and CEO of Gondola Group — a platform representing 52% of Belgian GDP — told RTBF that the divergence between rising inflation and falling supermarket prices defies normal economic logic.

“We see that despite the inflationary context, supermarket prices continue to fall. This is a completely abnormal reaction,” Billiet said. “The system is digging itself a hole in terms of economic margins.”

According to Billiet, the retail sector is “holding its breath to avoid raising prices urgently and shocking the consumer.” He warns that this cannot continue indefinitely. “The day prices rise, it risks happening abruptly. We’ll no longer be talking about a small unpleasant increase, but a real price shock.”

Price War Escalates Between Discounters

The competition has intensified significantly. Lidl recently announced permanent price reductions on approximately 100 additional products spanning food, hygiene, and household items. Aldi has responded by adding 15 extra promotions on top of its 25 weekly offers and has reduced prices on more than 300 products since the start of 2026, according to spokesperson Jason Sevestre.

“Our principle is clear: as soon as possible, we lower our prices,” Sevestre told HLN.

As RTL Info reported, Aldi has also begun hiding some promotions online to limit competitor visibility. While consumers previously could view offers up to two weeks in advance, only the following week’s promotions are now visible, with fresh produce offers masked for longer periods.

L’Avenir noted that this is a deliberate strategy to limit transparency toward competitors in a market where every price cut is closely monitored.

Shrinkflation and Government Response

Another consequence of margin pressure is the rise of “shrinkflation” — reducing product quantities while maintaining or increasing prices. The HLN survey identified cases including Head & Shoulders shampoo at Albert Heijn and Delhaize, where bottle sizes dropped from 300ml to 250ml while prices rose slightly.

Consumer Protection Minister Rob Beenders (Vooruit) has announced plans to strengthen transparency rules so consumers are clearly informed when product quantities decrease. As DH Les Sports+ reported, Beenders described shrinkflation as a practice where “producers treat consumers like imbeciles.”

International Pressure and Synthetic Pricing

Billiet also highlights the role of international e-commerce platforms — Shein, Temu, and Alibaba — in distorting Belgian retail pricing. “Belgium has become a playground for international players,” he told RTBF. “Prices no longer respond to normal economic logic, but to a synthetic economic logic.”

These platforms operate with fundamentally different cost structures and are increasingly competing with traditional brick-and-mortar retailers, creating an environment where prices are maintained artificially low. This “synthetic” pricing logic, as Billiet describes it, means the market is no longer functioning according to traditional supply-and-demand dynamics.

Analysis: A False Sense of Stability

While falling prices benefit consumers in the short term, the situation creates a misleading sense of price stability. Retailers in Belgium operate on exceptionally thin margins — Billiet has previously noted that they make only about 1% profit on a €100 shopping basket. The longer the price war continues, the more severe the eventual correction is likely to be.

The Delhaize advertising campaign earlier this year, which compared its prices directly to Lidl and Carrefour, sparked legal action from Lidl — a case Lidl ultimately lost — underscoring just how aggressive the competitive landscape has become.

What’s Next

The central question remains: when will the price shock arrive? Billiet does not provide a specific timeline, but the mechanics are clear. Retailers cannot absorb rising costs indefinitely. With energy prices continuing to climb due to geopolitical tensions, the pressure on retailers will only intensify. The question is not whether prices will rise, but when and how sharply.

For now, Belgian consumers are enjoying a rare moment of relief at the checkout counter. But economists warn that this is a calm before a potentially costly storm.