Russia Launches Massive Nuclear Drills as Tensions Escalate

Russia on Tuesday launched a sweeping three-day exercise of its nuclear forces, deploying approximately 64,000 troops, live ballistic and cruise missiles, and joint operations with Belarus, as geopolitical strains continue to mount over the war in Ukraine and the collapse of arms control agreements. The drills, announced by the Russian Defense Ministry, come on the same day President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Unprecedented Scale and Scope

The exercise, running from May 19 to 21, involves more than 200 missile launchers, over 140 aircraft, 73 surface warships, and 13 submarines — including eight strategic missile submarines armed with nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, according to NBC News. The Russian Defense Ministry said the maneuvers are focused on the “preparation and use of nuclear forces in the event of a threat of aggression” and include live launches of ballistic and cruise missiles at ranges within Russia.

For the first time, the drills are being conducted jointly on Belarusian territory. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that the exercise will address “issues related to the joint training and use of nuclear weapons deployed on the territory of the Republic of Belarus,” as Meduza reported, citing the Interfax news agency. Russia has stationed nuclear weapons in Belarus since 2023, including the latest intermediate-range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system.

Strategic Timing

The drills began as Putin arrived in China for a two-day official visit, his first since the Trump-Xi summit earlier this month. The Kremlin stated that Putin and Xi plan to “further strengthen the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation” between Moscow and Beijing, as Al Jazeera reported. The timing of the nuclear exercises alongside high-level diplomatic talks underscores the deepening Russia-China axis on security matters.

Ilya Volzhsky, a military analyst for Novaya Gazeta Europe, noted that while such exercises are held regularly in Russia, “this is the first time drills of this kind are being conducted on Belarusian territory.” He added that the scale of the maneuvers suggests extensive advance planning rather than a direct response to recent events.

Escalating Drone War

The nuclear drills unfold against a backdrop of intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory. Over the weekend, a major attack on Moscow’s suburbs killed three people and damaged buildings, making it harder for Russian officials to portray the conflict as distant from everyday civilian life. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russia launched over 500 drones and more than 20 ballistic and cruise missiles overnight on May 19 alone, according to NBC News.

Arms Control Vacuum

The exercises follow the formal expiration of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with the United States in February 2026, removing the last major bilateral arms control framework between the world’s two largest nuclear powers, as France 24 reported. This leaves both nations without formal mutual inspection or limitation regimes for the first time in decades, raising the risk of miscalculation and a renewed arms race.

Lowered Nuclear Threshold

In 2024, Putin adopted a revised nuclear doctrine stating that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack — a warning widely interpreted as aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with longer-range Western weapons. This significantly lowered the threshold for potential nuclear use, as NBC News reported.

Last week, Putin praised a successful test launch of the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which is set to replace aging Soviet-built nuclear missiles.

Previous Exercises

Russia has a pattern of conducting major nuclear drills at politically sensitive moments. In October 2024, Moscow held similar exercises a week before the US presidential election. In September 2025, Russia and Belarus conducted the Zapad-2025 exercises, which included nuclear weapons planning and prompted Poland to close its border with Belarus, according to Meduza.

Analysis and Implications

The convergence of events — nuclear drills, Putin’s China visit, the expiration of New START, and the intensifying drone war — creates a volatile strategic environment. The absence of arms control constraints, combined with Russia’s lowered nuclear threshold, increases the potential for escalation in the Ukraine conflict.

The drills also serve as a signal to the West that Russia retains a formidable nuclear deterrent despite heavy losses of conventional forces in Ukraine. By integrating Belarus into nuclear exercises, Moscow is further cementing its strategic partnership with Minsk and extending its nuclear footprint westward.

What to Watch For

As the three-day exercise continues with live missile launches, several questions remain unanswered: How will NATO formally respond to the drills? What specific outcomes will emerge from Putin’s discussions with Xi in Beijing? And will the demonstration of Russian nuclear readiness affect Western decisions on military aid to Ukraine?

The coming days will test whether nuclear signaling remains a tool of coercion or risks becoming a pathway to unintended escalation.