Belgian Fuel Prices Hit Record High as Reserves Dwindle

For the first time since July 2022, the maximum price for gasoline in Belgium has surged above €2 per liter, reaching €2.015 on Wednesday, May 20, as the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to squeeze global oil supplies. Diesel prices rose even more sharply, climbing 7.6 cents to €2.192 per liter, according to L1 Nieuws.

Context: A Global Crisis at the Pump

The price surge is not a Belgian-specific issue but the local manifestation of a global energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Since late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which 20 million barrels of oil (one-fifth of global consumption) normally pass daily — has been effectively closed by Iran. As VRT NWS reported, the blockade has stranded vast quantities of supply, preventing them from reaching international markets.

To compensate, 400 million barrels have been released from global strategic petroleum reserves — the largest such injection in history. But according to Prof. Thijs Van de Graaf, professor of international energy trade at Ghent University, this buffer is finite. The global strategic reserve of 1.2 billion barrels has already shrunk by one-third, as Het Laatste Nieuws reported in an interview with the professor.

“Without a solution, that buffer will eventually run out too, and then there will be few instruments left to temper the price,” Van de Graaf warned. “In that case, we will all feel it even worse.”

Expert Analysis: Three Scenarios

Prof. Van de Graaf outlined three possible scenarios for the crisis. The most optimistic is that President Donald Trump declares victory and withdraws from Iran, allowing markets to calm relatively quickly. The worst case involves further escalation with ground troops, creating months of uncertainty and potentially panicked markets. The most likely scenario, in his assessment, is a prolonged stalemate with gradually increasing pressure on oil prices.

“Iran nor the US want to make concessions, so the blockade will persist and pressure on oil prices will only increase,” Van de Graaf told HLN.

Johan Mattart of Brafco, the Belgian federation of fuel traders, attributed the latest price spike directly to geopolitical uncertainty. “It is mainly the uncertainty that is moving the petroleum markets. This new surge is primarily related to Trump’s latest threat to attack Iran again,” he said, as reported by HLN.

Supply Chain Pressures

According to a RaboResearch analysis published May 13 and cited by ManagementSite, acute physical fuel shortages in Europe are unlikely until at least the end of May, thanks to substantial reserves of diesel, naphtha, and kerosene built up since 2022. However, kerosene (jet fuel) is under the most pressure, with stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region already declining.

Asian countries including Japan, South Korea, and Singapore are competing for alternative oil suppliers, driving up global prices and potentially diverting supply away from Europe. This competition means that even if European reserves hold for now, replenishment lines are becoming longer and more expensive.

Consumer Impact and Advice

Belgian consumers are feeling the impact directly. Consumer confidence has already sunk to its lowest level in over a year, and the new price records add further strain on household budgets.

Mattart offered blunt advice to motorists: “I fear we have to sweat this out. As a motorist, you should adjust your behavior where possible and avoid the car as much as possible for non-essential trips.” Prof. Van de Graaf added that driving more slowly can also save significant fuel.

Broader Implications

The crisis also carries geopolitical dimensions beyond the pump. Iran has proposed allowing limited tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz — but only if oil is paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars, a direct challenge to the petrodollar system that has underpinned global oil trade for over 50 years. Chief economist Koen De Leus of BNP Paribas Fortis, as quoted by VRT NWS, noted that while the proposal is partly a provocation toward Trump, a full transition to a “petro-yuan” remains unrealistic in the short term due to China’s lack of free capital flow.

Meanwhile, Trump has proposed temporarily suspending the US federal gasoline tax, as reported by PAL. The measure would save American drivers roughly €2 per tank — a largely symbolic gesture that would require congressional approval.

What to Watch For

With only two more comparable releases possible from strategic reserves before they are exhausted, the clock is ticking. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues for months, prices could rise significantly further. A resolution depends on US-Iran negotiations, but experts caution that the most probable path is continued stalemate with gradually mounting economic pressure on consumers worldwide.

For Belgian motorists, the immediate outlook is clear: record prices at the pump are likely to persist, and may yet climb higher.