Gas Prices Surge Past $4.80 as Summer Travel Season Approaches
American motorists are facing the most expensive summer at the pump in years, with the national average gas price hitting $4.56 per gallon on May 20 — up more than 50% since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February. According to GasBuddy, prices could average $4.80 per gallon between Memorial Day and Labor Day, potentially touching $5 per gallon if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The Geopolitical Driver
The primary cause of the surge is the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its 12th week. The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally passes. Ship traffic through the strait has largely stalled, creating severe supply constraints that have sent global oil prices soaring.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, described the situation as “the most volatile summer at the pump in years.” He warned that Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they’re going this summer, and that even after the strait reopens, “it could take a year or more for prices to fully recover.”
The Numbers Behind the Pain
The data paints a stark picture. The national average of $4.56 on May 20 compares to just $2.98 per gallon on February 28, the day the conflict began — a 52.7% increase over 81 days. That is $1.38 higher than a year ago and $0.51 higher than just one month ago, according to AAA.
California drivers are bearing the brunt, paying an average of $6.14 per gallon, the highest in the nation. Washington ($5.78), Hawaii ($5.65), Oregon ($5.35), and Nevada ($5.27) round out the top five most expensive states. Seven states now have averages above $5 per gallon, and every state has crossed the $4 threshold, according to USA Today.
The all-time record of $5.02 per gallon, set in June 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war, is now within striking distance. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the summer, GasBuddy warns that new all-time highs are likely.
The Consumer Squeeze
The impact on household budgets has been severe. Researchers at Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab estimate that Americans have paid an extra $42 billion for gasoline and diesel since the war began — approximately $321 per U.S. household.
Consumers are already adapting. In Killeen, Texas, Charles Rice told CBS News he drove to Casey’s General Stores specifically because their price of $3.96 was cheaper than the $4.12 or $4.20 at other stations. “That’s what brought me in here today,” he said.
Casey’s CEO Darren Rebelez said the chain is seeing a surge in traffic as budget-conscious consumers seek lower prices. “When we get into times like this, where budgets are stretched a little bit, we’re viewed as a better value option,” he told CBS News. Sales of Casey’s store-brand snacks, which sell for about a dollar less than national brands, are also up as customers cut discretionary spending.
A recent CBS News poll found that more than half of Americans say gas prices represent a financial hardship, while 77% say their income is not keeping up with rising inflation. Only 56% of Americans still plan to drive more than two hours this summer, down from 69% last year.
Beyond the Pump: Broader Economic Risks
The gas price surge is rippling through the broader economy. Analysts warn that sustained high energy costs could tip the U.S. into a recession. Tyler Cowen, an economist cited in a CBS News report, has warned that oil price spikes of this magnitude could spark a global economic downturn.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, De Haan cautioned that prices could take a year or more to return to pre-war levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts retail gas prices will average $3.88 per gallon over the rest of 2026 and $3.62 per gallon in 2027 — still well above the $2.98 seen before the conflict.
What to Watch For
Several key variables will determine how much worse things get. The duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure is the single biggest factor. Diplomatic efforts — including President Trump’s recent meeting with China’s Xi Jinping, which failed to produce a breakthrough on Iran — could resume. OPEC+ nations could increase production to offset supply losses, though their capacity and willingness remain uncertain.
For now, American families heading into Memorial Day weekend will face the second-costliest holiday at the pump in history. With no clear end to the Iran conflict in sight, the summer of 2026 is shaping up to be an expensive one for anyone who needs to fill a tank.