Pa. Swing Districts Weigh Rising Costs as Midterms Approach

In two pivotal congressional districts in eastern Pennsylvania, voters are grappling with soaring housing costs, rising grocery bills, and stagnant wages — economic pressures that could determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. Both the 7th and 8th Congressional Districts flipped from Democratic to Republican in 2024 and are now rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, making them among the most closely watched battlegrounds in the country.

Context

The Lehigh Valley, encompassing Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton, has undergone a dramatic economic transformation. Once defined by the steel industry immortalized in Billy Joel’s 1982 song “Allentown,” the region has experienced a boom fueled by logistics, biotech, and high-tech manufacturing. Median household income in the Lehigh Valley has risen to $84,260 — a 44% increase since 2014, according to the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation. But that growth has driven up costs and squeezed the predominantly working-class population. In the neighboring 8th District, which includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, median income stands at $69,715 — below the state average.

Key Developments

On May 19, 2026, Democratic primaries produced nominees in both districts. In PA-07, Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader, won a competitive primary, defeating three opponents. Brooks, who received food stamps and lived in public housing as a teenager after his family’s home burned down, told The New York Times that voters “can see themselves in me. I have lived the life they are living.” He will face freshman Republican incumbent Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in November.

In PA-08, Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti won the Democratic nomination unopposed and will challenge incumbent Rep. Rob Bresnahan Jr., whose seat is rated “Lean Republican.”

The economic anxiety cutting across party lines is palpable. Karla Rodriguez, who owns a rotisserie chicken shop in Allentown, told the Philadelphia Inquirer that her daily sales have dropped from 500 chickens to 300 after she raised prices to offset higher supply costs. “We’ve never been this tight in the profit margin,” she said. “We’ve never been this bad.”

Housing has emerged as perhaps the most acute concern. A property purchased in Allentown for $150,000 in 2024 sold for $295,000 a year later, according to mortgage loan officer Carmen Dancsecs. Foreclosures are re-emerging for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, she added.

Analysis & Implications

Voter frustration does not automatically translate into Democratic gains. NOTUS reported that voters across the political spectrum express disillusionment with both parties. Heather Cassidy, a lifelong Republican and three-time Trump voter from the Lehigh Valley, said she won’t vote for Republicans again but also expressed doubt about the alternative. “No one cares about the people here,” she said. “All they care about is themselves. There isn’t affordable housing.”

Richard Sworley, an unaffiliated farmer from the Poconos, echoed that sentiment, telling NOTUS that finger-pointing on both sides has turned him off from voting entirely. “I don’t really care about party lines,” he said. “You can play the blame game all you want. It fixes nothing.”

President Donald Trump’s national approval rating has sunk to 37%, largely due to affordability concerns, according to NPR. Trump won both districts in 2024, and Mackenzie won PA-07 by just over 4,000 votes — a 1-percentage-point margin. But some voters who supported Trump remain loyal. Francis Amigo, a 63-year-old loading dock worker and three-time Trump voter, showed a grocery receipt totaling $106 — roughly double what the same items would have cost a few years ago. Still, he expressed mixed emotions, telling the Inquirer: “Sometimes it seems like maybe he’s overdoing it, like shoot first and ask questions later. But at least he’s doing something.”

What’s Next

With control of the House at stake, national party campaign arms are expected to spend heavily in these districts. Democrats are betting that Brooks’s working-class background can reconnect with voters who have drifted from the party. Mackenzie, for his part, said he will run on his “track record of delivering tax relief to every American” and being “an independent voice for the people of the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos.”

The outcome in these swing districts will likely hinge on whether voters believe either party can deliver meaningful relief from the rising costs reshaping their daily lives — or whether apathy prevails, creating unpredictable results in what could be one of the most consequential midterm elections in recent memory.