Gasoline Hits €2/L in Belgium as Iran Conflict Drives Costs

On Wednesday, May 21, 2026, the maximum price of 95-octane gasoline (E10) in Belgium surpassed the symbolic €2 per liter threshold, reaching €2.015 per liter — the highest level since July 2022. The surge, driven primarily by the ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran that began in February 2026, has pushed Brent crude oil to approximately $110 per barrel and sent shockwaves through Belgian households and businesses alike.

Context: Why Prices Are Rising

The primary driver behind the price spike is the conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted global oil markets significantly. Oil infrastructure in the Gulf region has been damaged, requiring months or even years to fully restore, while attacks on gas fields, LNG terminals, and maritime routes have created sustained supply uncertainty. According to RTBF, Brent crude has fluctuated between $107 and $119 per barrel since the conflict erupted.

Diesel prices have risen even more sharply. The maximum price of diesel (B7) reached €2.192 per liter on May 21, up 7.6 cents from the previous day. Diesel hit an all-time record of €2.489 per liter in early April 2026, as DH/Les Sports+ reported.

The Tax Burden: Why Relief Is Unlikely

While crude oil costs grab headlines, raw material costs represent only about 20% of the final pump price in Belgium. Taxes and distribution margins account for the vast majority. Professor Bertrand Candelon of UCLouvain, interviewed by RTBF, explained the structural challenge: “There was all this debate in Parliament in early April about this tax that was supposed to increase and ultimately didn’t, but was postponed. So it will arrive. And let’s not fool ourselves. Right now, the government is looking for money to solve the budget problems.”

Given Belgium’s significant budget deficit, structural tax reductions on fuel are considered unlikely. As Candelon noted, even if crude oil prices fell sharply, pump prices would not decrease proportionally due to the high fixed tax component.

Government Response: €80 Million Support Package

On April 21, 2026, Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s Arizona coalition approved an €80 million energy support package for May through July 2026. As The Brussels Times reported, the package includes a temporary tax credit for commuting expenses, with approximately €60 million allocated to ease commuting costs for workers who rely on their cars.

An additional €15 million has been set aside for vulnerable families who heat their homes using fossil fuels, and €5 million will go toward increasing the flat-rate mileage allowance for work-related travel. The government has also postponed planned increases in excise duties on gas and heating oil until August 1, according to VRT NWS.

A Consumption Paradox

Despite record prices, fuel consumption in Belgium has not decreased. As journalist Nadia Chater noted in L’Avenir: “We drive fewer kilometers, but we’ve never sold as much fuel.” This paradox highlights the inelastic demand for fuel in a country where car dependency remains high.

Analysis: What to Expect Next

In the short term, prices are likely to remain elevated as long as the Iran conflict continues. Professor Candelon warned that “a peace deal in the Middle East would lower prices, but a military attack could cause a new surge.”

A longer-term risk involves the fuel distribution market. Candelon cautioned that major players like TotalEnergies might reconsider their presence in Belgium, noting that the country represents only about 2% of Total’s global turnover. “If Europe wants to impose a lot of taxes and constraints, at some point they might say, ‘you’re on your own, we no longer distribute in Europe,’ and then there could be potential supply problems.”

On the positive side, the energy transition is expected to reduce global oil demand over the long term, which would exert downward pressure on prices. However, this offers little relief to consumers facing high costs at the pump today.

What’s Next

The €80 million support package is temporary, covering only May through July 2026. With nearly 4 in 10 Belgians reporting difficulty making ends meet, according to recent Statbel data, pressure is mounting on the government to consider more substantial measures. However, with Belgium’s budget deficit constraining fiscal options, significant tax relief appears unlikely. All eyes remain on the Middle East, where the trajectory of the Iran conflict will ultimately determine how long Belgian motorists will have to pay these record prices.