China’s Population Decline Confirmed as Aging Crisis Deepens

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the main data bulletin from the 2025 National 1% Population Sample Survey, confirming that the country’s population continues to decline while aging accelerates at an unprecedented pace. The survey, conducted with a standard reference time of midnight on November 1, 2025, sampled 20.52 million people — 1.46% of the national population — and provides the most authoritative mid-decade snapshot of China’s demographic trajectory.

According to the Xinhua News Agency, which published the official bulletin, China’s total population stands at 1.405 billion, with 717.22 million males (51.03%) and 688.23 million females (48.97%). The sex ratio sits at 104.21 males per 100 females. The data has been adjusted for a net undercount rate of 0.72%, as confirmed by post-enumeration quality checks.

A Population in Structural Decline

The 2025 figures confirm that China’s population decline is an ongoing structural trend rather than a temporary fluctuation. In 2025, China recorded 7.92 million births against 11.31 million deaths, a natural decrease of 3.39 million people. This marks the continuation of a trend that began in 2022, when China entered its first period of negative population growth since the famine era of the early 1960s.

As Phoenix News reported in its coverage of NBS Director Wang Pingping’s analysis, the country’s population size remains “huge” and labor resources are “abundant,” but the demographic pressures are unmistakable. Wang noted that “high-quality population development continues to advance, providing solid demographic support for high-quality economic and social development.”

Accelerating Aging Crisis

Perhaps the most striking finding is the rapid aging of China’s population. The survey reveals that 321.22 million people — 22.86% of the population — are aged 60 or above, with 223.09 million (15.87%) aged 65 and older. For context, in 2000, only 10.3% of China’s population was over 60. The share has more than doubled in a quarter-century.

The working-age population (15-59 years) now stands at 869.87 million, or 61.89% of the total, down from approximately 70% a decade ago. This shrinking labor pool presents significant challenges for economic productivity, though the NBS notes that many in the 60-64 cohort remain healthy and socially engaged.

Urbanization and Migration Trends

China’s urbanization rate has reached 67.74%, with 952.08 million people now living in urban areas. This continues a decades-long trend of rural-to-urban migration, supporting domestic consumption and service sector growth. However, the survey also recorded 357.88 million “floating population” migrants and 479.85 million people with household registration (hukou) mismatches, highlighting persistent challenges in social service integration.

Average household size has fallen to 2.52 persons, reflecting trends toward nuclear families, delayed marriage, and an increasing number of single-elderly households.

Rising Educational Attainment

On a more positive note, China’s human capital continues to improve. The survey found 272.33 million people with college-level education or higher, 242.72 million with high school education, and rising average education levels across the board. The working-age population (16-59) now averages 11.3 years of education, reflecting China’s massive investments in higher education over the past two decades.

Policy Responses and Outlook

In response to these demographic challenges, China has implemented a range of pro-natalist policies. The one-child policy, in effect from 1979 to 2016, was replaced first by a two-child policy and later by a three-child allowance. In 2025, China launched its first national childcare subsidy scheme, providing 3,600 yuan (approximately $503) per year for each child up to age three.

As analysis from GEFIRA notes, Beijing has also raised the retirement age, relaxed marriage registration rules, and removed contraceptive pills from tax-exempt goods. Early indicators show promise — the number of marriages rose by 22.5% in the third quarter of 2025.

What This Means for China’s Future

The demographic data released on May 22 paints a complex picture. China is transitioning from a “quantity-based” demographic dividend to a “quality-based” one, leveraging its growing pool of educated workers and researchers — the country now has 10.8 million R&D personnel. However, the shrinking working-age population, accelerating aging, and continued low birth rates present structural headwinds for economic growth.

Wang Pingping emphasized that regions across China are working to improve fertility support policies, establish childcare subsidy systems, and develop inclusive childcare services. The “Active Response to Population Aging National Strategy” and the “Healthy China” initiative represent long-term efforts to manage the demographic transition.

Whether these measures will be sufficient to alter the trajectory remains an open question. With the proportion of the population aged 60+ projected to exceed one-third by 2050, China faces a demographic transformation with profound implications for its economy, social welfare systems, and global standing.