Deep-Sea Mining Rush: Trump Order Opens Ocean Floor to Firms

One year after President Donald Trump signed an executive order promising to create a deep-sea mining industry from scratch, at least nine companies are racing to secure permits, stock prices have soared, and federal regulators are fast-tracking approvals at unprecedented speed. Sections of the seafloor from American Samoa to Alaska could be auctioned for offshore mining as early as August 2026, according to an Associated Press investigation.

But beneath the surface of this mining rush lies a more complex picture — one of uncertain economics, environmental concerns, and questions about whether the regulatory machinery is ready for an industry that has never operated at commercial scale.

The Executive Order That Changed Everything

In April 2025, Trump signed “Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources,” hailing seafloor minerals as vital to America’s future prosperity and trade independence from China. The order directed U.S. agencies to expedite permitting for seabed mining, reversing previous administrations’ decisions to honor the rules of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the UN-affiliated body that governs mineral extraction in international waters.

The move drew immediate condemnation from China, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun saying the authorization “violates international law and harms the overall interests of the international community,” as BBC News reported. The U.S. is the only major power not party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), placing it in direct conflict with the international framework that 150+ countries recognize.

Regulators Race to Catch Up

Two federal agencies are now working at breakneck speed to build a permitting system from scratch. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shortened the timeline for commercial permits and now allows companies to apply for exploration and commercial operations simultaneously — a significant departure from previous sequential requirements. NOAA has requested funds to expand its permitting staff and set a target of processing 16 applications next fiscal year.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), a division of the Interior Department, is evaluating seabed mining in waters off Alaska, Virginia, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced a mandate to “speed up” offshore critical mineral development, and BOEM plans to hold its first lease sale as early as August 2026, according to a budget proposal. The agency will restructure under the new name “Marine Minerals Administration.”

Elizabeth Klein, who served as BOEM director under the Biden administration, told the AP she has concerns about whether current regulations are adequate. “You want to make sure that the operators are financially capable… they actually have the skills and the resources that would be required,” Klein said. “The current regs don’t speak to much of that at all.”

The Companies: From Treasure Hunters to Startups

The roster of companies seeking access to seabed minerals reads like a cast of characters from an adventure novel.

The Metals Company (TMC) is the clear front-runner. CEO Gerard Barron was in the White House on the day of the executive order and has since testified at three congressional hearings. The company has close ties to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who oversaw Cantor Fitzgerald — the investment group that advised TMC — before joining the administration. TMC spent nearly $800,000 on lobbying since 2024 and is the only company to have tested deep-water equipment, hauling up 3,000 metric tons of nodules in a 2022 trial. If granted a permit, it says it could commercially mine by the end of 2027.

Odyssey Marine Exploration began as a shipwreck treasure-hunting firm, claiming to have found more shipwrecks than any other organization. After legal battles with Spain over a treasure claim, the company pivoted to seafloor minerals. It won $37 million in arbitration against Mexico after mining permits were withdrawn, and is now seeking mining rights off the Virginia coast. This spring, Odyssey announced it will merge with American Ocean Minerals Corporation.

Impossible Metals positions itself as the environmentally friendly option, building floating robots designed to collect nodules without disturbing seafloor life. The company has offered island territories 1% of future profits, but has faced local opposition in American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands, where local governments have banned deep-sea mining in their waters — though the federal government controls waters beyond three miles from shore.

Other entrants include Deep Sea Minerals Corp., a Canadian publicly traded company that recently acknowledged its advertisements may have “overstated” the certainty of future growth, and Deep Sea Rare Minerals / Eco Minerals, a South Carolina startup that originated from a search for Amelia Earhart’s plane.

The Economics: Promise vs. Reality

The White House projects deep-sea mining could boost U.S. GDP by $300 billion over 10 years and create 100,000 jobs. But independent analysts are deeply skeptical.

Victor Vescovo, a private equity investor and deep-sea explorer who has chosen not to back any mining companies, told the AP: “It just feels right to people thinking that there is a cornucopia of metals on the bottom of the seafloor that are just there to be plucked up like seashells on the seashore. If there’s more scrutiny on their actual financial models, you would go, ‘Wait a second, this is much more uncertain.’”

TMC’s own pre-feasibility study forecast breakeven in its eighth year of commercial mining — the same year it forecast mineral reserves to be “all mined.” Mining consultant Steven Emerman called this unusual: “No one goes into a project saying, ‘In the best-case scenario, we’ll break even.’” Simon Jowitt, Nevada’s state geologist, was even more blunt: “There’s not going to be any profit in the project.”

Battery technology has also evolved to rely less on cobalt and nickel, reducing demand projections. Even copper, the most promising metal in the nodules, is increasingly being replaced by aluminum in some sectors. Fully permitted land-based mines in Michigan, Wyoming, and Idaho remain inactive, raising questions about whether demand justifies the enormous expense and risk of deep-sea extraction.

Environmental Concerns and Unanswered Questions

Deep-sea ecologists warn that the ocean floor remains vastly under-studied. A 2025 study from the Natural History Museum and National Oceanography Centre found that while some sediment-dwelling creatures could recolonize mining test sites after 40+ years, larger animals had not returned — likely because the polymetallic nodules they depend on take millions of years to form.

Emily Jeffers, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, called the fast-tracking “an environmental disaster in the making,” as France24 reported. Jeff Watters of Ocean Conservancy added: “The harm caused by deep-sea mining isn’t restricted to the ocean floor: it will impact the entire water column, top to bottom.”

Processing the minerals presents another hurdle. The U.S. currently has no major facilities for processing nickel, manganese, or cobalt, meaning companies would need to rely on foreign partners in Japan, South Korea, or Indonesia — potentially exposing them to lawsuits under ISA commitments. The Swiss company Allseas, which owns TMC’s mining ship, said it would only deploy its technology once “all relevant regulatory conditions are satisfied.”

What’s Next

BOEM plans to hold its first lease sale as early as August 2026. Legal challenges from environmental groups and possibly foreign governments are expected. The industry’s future also hinges on the 2028 presidential election — company executives are pushing for assurances that their projects won’t be canceled by a future administration less eager to mine the sea.

As Tony Romeo, founder of Eco Minerals, told the AP: “There’s going to be some flops. There’s going be some failures. Some businesses aren’t going to make it, but somebody will.” The question — for investors, regulators, and the marine ecosystems at stake — is whether the gamble is worth taking.