China Population Declines as Aging Accelerates, Survey Shows

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the main data report from the 2025 National 1% Population Sample Survey, revealing a total population of 1.405 billion and confirming the acceleration of the country’s demographic aging trend. The survey, conducted with a standard reference time of midnight on November 1, 2025, sampled 20.52 million people — representing 1.46% of the national population — and provides the most comprehensive snapshot of China’s demographic structure since the 2020 census.

According to the official communiqué published by Xinhua News Agency, China’s population now stands at 1,405,450,000 — a decline of approximately 6.33 million people from the 1,411.78 million recorded in the 2020 census. This confirms that China remains in a period of population decline that first began in 2022.

Accelerating Demographic Aging

Perhaps the most striking finding is the rapid acceleration of population aging. The population aged 60 and above has surged to 321.22 million, or 22.86% of the total population, up sharply from 264.02 million (18.70%) in 2020. Those aged 65 and older now number 223.09 million, representing 15.87% of the population — an increase from 190.64 million (13.50%) five years earlier.

This means China has added approximately 57.2 million elderly citizens in just five years. The country crossed the threshold from an “aging society” to an “aged society” between 2021 and 2022 and is now approaching “super-aged” status, defined as 20% of the population aged 65 or older.

The working-age population — those aged 15 to 59 — now stands at 869.87 million, accounting for 61.89% of the total. While still a large absolute number, this group has been declining since around 2012, placing increasing pressure on economic growth and social security systems.

Urbanization and Household Trends

Urbanization continues its steady march. The urban population has reached 952.08 million, or 67.74% of the total, up from 63.89% in 2020 — a gain of 3.85 percentage points over five years. The rural population stands at 453.37 million (32.26%).

Average household size has shrunk to 2.52 persons, down from 2.62 in 2020, reflecting ongoing trends toward smaller families and more single-person households. The survey recorded 514.65 million family households nationwide.

China’s floating or migrant population — people living away from their registered residence — has reached 357.88 million, underscoring the vast scale of internal migration and its implications for public service provision and hukou (household registration) reform.

Education and Gender Balance

The survey highlights significant gains in educational attainment. The population with college education or above has reached 272.33 million, supporting China’s transition from a “demographic dividend” to a “talent dividend.” Additionally, 242.72 million have completed high school, 452.83 million have middle school education, and 331.22 million have primary school education.

On gender balance, the sex ratio stands at 104.21 males per 100 females, showing gradual improvement from 105.07 in 2020 but still indicating a surplus of males with implications for marriage markets and social stability. The male population is 717.22 million (51.03%), while the female population is 688.23 million (48.97%).

Policy Implications

The data provides critical inputs for policy planning across multiple sectors. As People’s Daily reported, the survey’s main purpose is to promptly understand population development and changes. The findings carry significant implications for pension systems, healthcare infrastructure, elderly care services, and labor market policies.

With 22.86% of the population aged 60 and above, China faces mounting pressure to reform its pension and healthcare systems. The shrinking working-age population also raises questions about long-term economic growth potential and the sustainability of social security financing.

What to Watch

The survey, authorized by the State Council via official notice in October 2024 and conducted under the framework of the National Census Regulations, represents the most detailed demographic accounting since the 2020 census. The NBS noted a net undercount rate of 0.72%, with published figures including adjustments for this discrepancy.

As reported by Guangming Daily, the data covers mainland China’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, plus active military personnel, while excluding Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan residents, and foreign nationals. Analysts will be watching closely for specific policy adjustments the Chinese government may announce in response to these accelerating demographic trends, particularly in areas of retirement age reform, childcare incentives, and healthcare investment.