Rubio Confirms US Will Reduce Troops in Europe, Acknowledging Allied Nervousness

HELSINGBORG, Sweden — US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed on Friday that the United States will reduce its military footprint in Europe over the long term, delivering a sobering message to NATO allies gathered for a foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden and acknowledging that the announcement “may create some nervousness.”

Speaking at the first NATO meeting hosted by Sweden since it joined the alliance in 2024, Rubio told reporters that “there’s a broad recognition that there are going to be eventually less US troops in Europe than there has historically been for a variety of reasons,” according to the Associated Press. The statement marks the clearest confirmation yet of a strategic shift that has left European allies grappling with uncertainty over the future of transatlantic security.

Context: A Fractured Alliance

The announcement comes amid deepening strains between the Trump administration and its NATO partners, primarily driven by the US war with Iran. No other NATO member joined the 38-day US attack on Iran, and several allies refused to allow American forces to use their bases or airspace for operations. Spain denied access entirely, while France permitted only support aircraft from its Istres air base. The UK went furthest among European allies by allowing US bombing missions from Fairford, Gloucestershire.

Rubio acknowledged that Trump’s “disappointment” with allies over their response to operations in the Middle East would be a central topic at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, scheduled for July 7-8, 2026, as The Guardian reported. “The president’s views — frankly, disappointment — at some of our NATO allies and their response to our operations in the Middle East, they are well documented,” Rubio said.

Confusion Over Troop Levels

The confirmation of a long-term reduction follows weeks of contradictory signals from Washington. Earlier in May, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany — roughly 15% of the 36,000 stationed there. The Pentagon subsequently halted the rotation of 4,000 troops into Poland and reduced the number of brigade combat teams in Europe from four to three.

However, in a surprise reversal, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on May 21 that he would send “an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland,” citing his relationship with Polish President Karol Nawrocki. The about-face left even US defense officials bewildered. “We just spent the better part of two weeks reacting to the first announcement. We don’t know what this means either,” one anonymous defense official told the Associated Press.

Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard, who hosted the meeting, described the situation as “confusing indeed, and not always easy to navigate.” Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot offered a more measured assessment, telling AFP that Rubio was “extremely cordial and composed” but suggested some messages were “more intended for his domestic politics.”

The Cavalry Adjustment and NATO Force Model

Beyond troop numbers, Rubio announced an adjustment to what NATO calls “the cavalry” — the pool of forces that can be mobilized within 180 days in case of emergency. At NATO headquarters in Brussels, US officials also briefed allies on the Pentagon’s aims for its commitments to the NATO Force Model, which involves contingency planning for Europe’s defense.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte sought to downplay the tensions, calling the process “normal business” and declining to give specifics, describing the procedure as “highly classified.” However, Rubio made clear that the US commitment was shifting, noting that “every country has to constantly reevaluate what their needs are, what their commitments are around the world.”

The Iran War and the Strait of Hormuz

A key driver of the tension is the blocked Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has closed, disrupting global shipping and energy markets. Rubio raised the possibility of NATO countries contributing to a military force to reopen the strait. “We have to have a plan B for if someone is shooting, then how do you reopen the straits?” he said, according to The Guardian. The UK and France have offered to lead a multinational force to secure the strait once a peace deal is reached.

Analysis: A Watershed Moment for NATO

The confirmation of a reduced US troop presence represents one of the most significant challenges to NATO cohesion since the alliance’s founding. Approximately 80,000 US troops are currently stationed in Europe, and the Pentagon is legally required to maintain at least 76,000 unless allies are consulted. The announced reductions could test that legal floor.

For European allies, the message is clear: they must take greater responsibility for their own defense. The crisis may accelerate EU efforts to develop independent defense capabilities, though significant political and financial hurdles remain. Poland appears to be a special case, with Trump’s reversal on troop deployments there suggesting that bilateral relationships with individual leaders can influence US decisions, potentially undermining NATO’s collective decision-making framework.

What’s Next

All eyes are now on the Ankara NATO summit in July, which Rubio described as potentially “one of the more important” in the alliance’s 77-year history. The meeting will test whether NATO can reconcile US demands with European security needs at a time when the war in Ukraine continues and Russia watches the alliance’s internal discord closely.

As Rubio put it: “Nothing about all this is surprising even if, of course, I understand perfectly that this may create some nervousness.” For European allies, the question is whether that nervousness will translate into action — or into a fundamental restructuring of the transatlantic alliance.