Ukraine Makes Biggest Territorial Gains Since Summer 2024
Ukraine has achieved its most significant territorial gains since the summer of 2024, liberating 590 square kilometers of occupied land since the start of 2026 in a series of coordinated counterattacks that analysts say mark a potential turning point in the war with Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the milestone on May 22, declaring that “the trend is certainly not in the occupier’s favor” as Ukrainian forces press their advantage across multiple sectors of the frontline.
Context
The advances represent the first sustained reversal of Russian territorial gains since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in August 2024. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces have conducted counterattacks across several sectors, recapturing much of Kupyansk starting in November 2025, liberating over 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine during winter and spring 2026, and retaking several settlements in western Zaporizhia Oblast since late April. In April 2026, Russia suffered a net loss of territory for the first time since the Kursk incursion.
Key Developments
The Ukrainian gains have been driven by three converging factors: a decisive technological edge in drone warfare, a successful mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics and infrastructure, and a mounting Russian manpower crisis.
Ukrainian drones have become the dominant weapon on the battlefield. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported that drones struck 19,203 Russian personnel in the first 19 days of May alone, forecasting over 34,000 Russian casualties by month’s end. According to The Guardian, drones now account for 70-80% of Russian casualties.
Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on May 20 that Russian military losses since the start of 2026 had exceeded 141,500 troops, including more than 83,000 killed or permanently incapacitated, as New Voice of Ukraine reported. Ukraine’s General Staff estimates total Russian personnel losses at approximately 1,352,070 since the full-scale invasion began.
Russia’s recruitment crisis is compounding its battlefield problems. The ISW reports that Russia concluded only 70,500 military service contracts in the first quarter of 2026, below the monthly quota of 33,500-34,600, meaning the recruitment rate has dipped below the replacement rate.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign has systematically degraded Russian war-fighting capacity. Ukrainian strikes have targeted oil refineries, logistics hubs, and defense industrial facilities deep inside Russian territory, crippling revenue streams and disrupting supply chains.
Analysis & Implications
Experts see the shift as significant but caution against declaring a permanent turning point. Hans van Koningsbrugge, professor of Russian history at the University of Groningen, told the Dutch Times that “with all the caveats and perhaps small steps the country is taking, I think a turning point has nevertheless begun in Ukraine’s favor.” Fellow expert Nicolaas Kraft van Ermel-Nijland noted that battlefield momentum has shifted repeatedly throughout the war: “Right now Ukraine is more effective, but a few months ago it was Russia. Before that, it was the other way around.”
The ISW assessed that Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine have created “cascading operational and strategic effects” against Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt, forcing Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or allocating resources to priority sectors.
On the economic front, Russia’s GDP shrank by 0.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, its first quarterly contraction in three years, according to Reuters. Nearly two-thirds of small businesses did not turn a profit in Q1 2026, according to the Russian Chamber of Commerce. Rajan Menon, professor emeritus at the City University of New York, wrote in The Guardian that “with the frontline stalled, an estimated 1.3 million Russian troops dead or wounded, and ordinary Russians under increasing economic pressure, the war Putin believed would produce his crowning achievement may prove to be his undoing.”
Diplomatically, the path forward remains uncertain. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged on May 22 that U.S.-brokered peace talks are “not fruitful” and effectively on pause, as Kyiv Independent reported. Zelensky has been pushing for a European seat at any future negotiations, speaking with French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
What’s Next
The coming weeks will test whether Ukraine can sustain its current pace of counterattacks without overextending its forces. Russia may intensify drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in response to its battlefield setbacks. A NATO summit scheduled for July 7-8 in Ankara could provide a platform for further diplomatic and military coordination.
As Zelensky stated, Ukraine is “forcing Russia toward diplomacy” through a combination of military pressure and sanctions. Whether that pressure will be sufficient to bring Moscow to the negotiating table on terms acceptable to Kyiv remains the defining question of the war’s next phase.