Belgian Navy Faces Frigate Gap as Program Delays Mount

The Belgian Navy is facing an unprecedented crisis that could leave it without a single operational frigate for the first time in its modern history, as the joint Belgian-Dutch Anti-Submarine Warfare Frigate (ASWF) program suffers catastrophic delays and cost overruns. With delivery of the first new frigate now not expected until 2034 at the earliest — seven years behind schedule — and the navy’s two aging M-class vessels nearing the end of their service lives, Belgium confronts a critical capability gap that threatens its national defense and NATO commitments.

A Program in Crisis

In June 2023, Belgium and the Netherlands formally confirmed the ASWF program, awarding a €4 billion contract to Damen Shipyards and Thales Nederland for four next-generation frigates — two per country. The program was intended to replace Belgium’s aging Karel Doorman-class frigates, the Leopold I and Louise-Marie, which were acquired second-hand from the Netherlands in 2007 and 2008 and are now over 35 years old.

However, the program has been plagued by difficulties from the outset. According to La Libre Belgique, the Dutch Defence Ministry confirmed in a report published this week that the original ship design proved to be “unstable,” requiring a fundamental redesign. The first Dutch frigate has been delayed from 2029 to 2033, while Belgium’s first vessel will not arrive until 2034 in the best-case scenario.

Soaring Costs

The delays have been accompanied by a dramatic cost escalation. Originally estimated at €600 million per vessel, the price tag has ballooned to approximately €1 billion per frigate, with an additional €250 million or more expected. The total cost for Belgium’s two frigates now exceeds €2 billion, raising serious questions about affordability within the country’s defense budget.

VRT NWS Defence Expert Jens Franssen described the situation as a new “price explosion,” noting that a source close to the dossier confirmed the severity of the financial overruns. The cost increases are attributed to post-COVID inflation, supply chain disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine, and the complexity of the redesign work.

Aging Fleet at Breaking Point

The Belgian Navy currently operates two M-class frigates, the Leopold I (F930) and Louise-Marie (F931), built between 1988 and 1991. Acquired second-hand from the Netherlands nearly two decades ago, both vessels are now well beyond their expected service life. Maintenance has become increasingly difficult due to the unavailability of spare parts, and their weapons systems are considered obsolete.

Admiral Tanguy Botman, Commander of the Belgian Navy, has raised the alarm, warning that for the first time in its history, the navy risks running out of frigates. As Zone Militaire/Opex360 reports, a source close to the dossier stated bluntly: “A navy without frigates is impossible. Personnel would be technically unemployed, recruit training would be impossible, and NATO exercises at sea would have to be cancelled.”

NATO Commitments at Risk

Belgium contributes to NATO’s Standing Naval Forces, and the frigate gap has significant implications for the alliance. With heightened geopolitical tensions, including increased Russian naval activity in the North Sea and the ongoing war in Ukraine, Belgium’s inability to field operational frigates undermines its credibility as a NATO partner.

The country’s defense spending, hovering around 1.1-1.2% of GDP — well below NATO’s 2% target — has been a longstanding concern among alliance partners. The frigate crisis is likely to intensify pressure on the Belgian government to increase defense investment.

Emergency Solutions Under Discussion

Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken (N-VA) met with his Dutch counterpart Dilan Yeşilgöz in early May to discuss the crisis. According to reports, the two ministers agreed to seek an emergency solution before the summer of 2026.

Several options are being considered. These include leasing frigates from allied navies, converting existing minehunters into interim patrol platforms, or — in the most dramatic scenario — canceling the Dutch order entirely and purchasing French FDI Ronnarc’h-class frigates from Naval Group, which could reportedly be delivered more quickly.

“France also builds frigates [the Ronnarc’h class] that can be delivered more quickly,” De Morgen reported, citing sources familiar with the discussions. Such a move would represent a significant shift in Belgium’s defense procurement strategy, which has historically favored cooperation with the Netherlands.

Broader Industrial Concerns

The ASWF program’s difficulties are part of a wider pattern of challenges facing European naval shipbuilding. Damen Shipyards has also struggled with the German F126 frigate program, requiring a €290 million government bailout. The situation has raised questions about whether European naval industrial capacity has atrophied after decades of relative peace and underinvestment.

Jens Franssen of VRT NWS noted that “Dutch industry has partly forgotten how to build such complex ships,” pointing to a broader erosion of industrial capability that now threatens multiple European naval modernization programs.

What’s Next

The coming weeks will be critical as Belgian and Dutch officials work to finalize an emergency solution before the summer parliamentary recess. Defence Minister Francken faces the difficult task of securing additional funding for the over-budget program while simultaneously exploring interim solutions to keep the navy operational.

For the Belgian Navy, the stakes could not be higher. Without a credible frigate capability, the country’s ability to patrol its waters, protect critical North Sea infrastructure, and fulfill its alliance obligations hangs in the balance. The decisions made in the coming months will shape Belgian naval defense for a generation.