US and Iran Near Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran have reached a tentative framework agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical maritime chokepoint that has been effectively closed since Iran’s blockade began on February 28, 2026, following the outbreak of the US-Israel air war against Iran. The proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), described by President Donald Trump as “largely negotiated” but still “subject to finalization,” could reshape global energy markets and regional geopolitics.
The Framework Agreement
According to reports from Al Jazeera, the draft MoU includes a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be cleared of mines and returned to operational status. The reopening would occur in phases: the US would first unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets, mine-clearing operations would begin, and the US naval blockade on Iranian ports would be lifted. Full reopening is expected within 30 days of signing.
A key provision stipulates that no tolls will be charged on ships transiting the strait — addressing a major US demand after Iran had previously levied charges exceeding $1 million per vessel during its brief period of controlled access in April. The Guardian reported that Iran would also agree to clear the mines it has deployed in the waterway.
The Nuclear Disconnect
Perhaps the most contentious aspect of the emerging deal revolves around Iran’s nuclear program — and the two sides appear to be reading from different scripts. US officials have told the Washington Post and New York Times that Iran agreed “in principle” to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. However, Iranian officials flatly deny this, insisting the MoU only commits to future negotiations on nuclear matters.
As the New York Post reported, Trump has made eliminating Iran’s nuclear program a key demand, stating that preventing the Islamic Republic from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon was the primary justification for the war. Yet Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei described the proposal as a “framework agreement” that would first establish broad principles before details are negotiated over 30 to 60 days.
Trita Parsi, an Iran expert and cofounder of the Quincy Institute, told Al Jazeera that while the MoU does not include major substantive concessions from either side, it signals a willingness to move toward a broader deal. “The truth assessment of who blinked first will not come until we see what the final outcome is, after we spend another 30 days,” Parsi said.
Economic Stakes and Global Impact
The stakes could hardly be higher. Before the crisis, approximately 20 million barrels of oil — 20% of global seaborne oil trade — and a similar share of liquefied natural gas passed through the 34-kilometer-wide strait daily. China received a third of its oil via this route, while Europe relied on it for 12-14% of its LNG from Qatar.
When Iran closed the strait in March, oil prices surged past $100 per barrel and eventually peaked at $126 per barrel for Brent crude — the fastest price rise during any conflict in recent history. The crisis stranded approximately 2,000 ships and 20,000 mariners in the Persian Gulf. Reopening the strait would likely trigger a sharp decline in oil prices and free those stranded vessels.
Regional Diplomacy and Israel’s Role
The negotiations involved an unusually broad coalition of regional players. According to Trump’s statements on Truth Social, the discussions included Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif served as a key mediator between Washington and Tehran.
Israel remains a wildcard. While Trump said his conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “went very well,” reports indicate Israel is wary of the deal. The Guardian reported that Israel has been “pushing for war” amid ceasefire efforts. Setareh Sadeqi, assistant professor at the University of Tehran, told Al Jazeera that the key challenge for Trump is whether he can defy Israel’s interests and push the deal through.
Domestic Political Pressures
Trump faces criticism from Republican hawks who warn of a “disastrous mistake.” His messaging has been notably cautious — on May 23 he touted the agreement as largely negotiated, but the following day struck a more measured tone, writing on Truth Social: “It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking during a visit to India, offered a calibrated assessment: “Suffice it to say some progress has been made, significant progress, although not final progress.”
What Happens Next
Both sides acknowledge that final approval from leaders could take days. The MoU has not been signed, and the most difficult issues — the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, the scope of sanctions relief, and the role of Israel — have been deliberately deferred to future negotiations. The 60-day window provides space for these talks, but also creates uncertainty.
If the deal holds, it would mark one of the most significant diplomatic breakthroughs in a conflict that began with the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 and escalated into the largest disruption to world energy supply since the 1970s. If it collapses, the region could face a return to hostilities with even higher stakes.
As Baghaei put it: “The trend this week has been towards a reduction in disputes, but there are still issues that need to be discussed through mediators. We will have to wait and see where the situation ends in the next three or four days.”