Texas Republicans Vote in Cornyn-Paxton Senate Runoff

Texas Republicans headed to the polls Tuesday for a pivotal primary runoff election that will determine the party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. The race pits Cornyn against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a contest widely viewed as a proxy battle between the GOP’s establishment wing and President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, with the winner set to face Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in the November general election.

The Race So Far

The runoff was triggered after neither candidate secured a majority in the March 3 primary, with Cornyn finishing at 42% and Paxton at 40.5%, according to certified results. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt placed third with 13.5% and has since endorsed Paxton. The two-month runoff campaign has been one of the most expensive and closely watched in the country, drawing national attention as a bellwether for Trump’s influence within the Republican Party heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

Trump’s Late Endorsement

President Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19 — just one week before the runoff — calling him “a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas.” The endorsement came after months of teasing, during which Trump had said the candidate he did not endorse should “immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!” According to AP News, Trump had previously called Cornyn a “hopeless RINO” for supporting the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act following the Uvalde school massacre.

Senate Republican leaders expressed dismay at Trump’s decision. “We’re just very sorry to see that happen,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD). Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) said she was “actually sad,” adding that she believes Cornyn has a better chance of winning the general election. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) was blunt: “He made the wrong pick.”

Spending Disparity and Polling

The race has featured a staggering financial imbalance. Cornyn and his allies have spent roughly $90 million on advertising — including more than $20 million since the March 3 primary — compared to Paxton’s approximately $10.5 million, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Despite this 9-to-1 spending advantage, recent polling has shown a tight contest. A University of Houston Hobby School poll conducted from April 28 to May 1 found Paxton leading Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely runoff voters, as reported by USA Today.

The Ideological Divide

The race represents a fundamental clash over the direction of the Texas Republican Party. Cornyn, a former Texas Supreme Court justice who has served in the Senate since 2002, has positioned himself as an experienced legislator who has delivered for the state. He has criticized what he calls “performance artists” in politics and warned that Paxton’s legal baggage — including his 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House and ongoing securities fraud charges — could jeopardize the seat in November.

Paxton, meanwhile, has campaigned as a proven fighter for conservative causes, highlighting his legal battles against Democratic policies as attorney general. His supporters have brushed aside concerns about his legal troubles. “He’s had his flaws, but so have we; we all make mistakes,” said Daniel Vega, 18, a Paxton supporter. “He’s repented; let’s move on.” Jeffrey Sonnier, 72, added: “He’s a fighter. He’s a person of action. He’s proven that as attorney general.”

General Election Implications

Polls suggest the general election could be unexpectedly competitive regardless of who wins the runoff. A Texas Southern University poll found Cornyn leading Talarico 45% to 44%, while Paxton and Talarico were tied at 45% each — remarkable figures in a state where Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election since 1988. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball each rate the general election as “Likely Republican,” but the margins suggest Texas could be more competitive than in recent cycles.

What to Watch

As polls close Tuesday evening, the outcome will be closely watched for what it signals about Trump’s enduring influence over Republican primary voters and the viability of establishment incumbents in the MAGA era. A Paxton victory would mark a significant triumph for the Trump-aligned wing of the party and could set the stage for a contentious general election. A Cornyn win would demonstrate that institutional support and massive spending can still overcome a Trump-backed challenger.

The winner will face Democratic nominee James Talarico and Libertarian Ted Brown in the general election on November 3, 2026.