Belgian Court of Audit: 15-20 Billion Needed to Cut Deficit

The Belgian Court of Audit (Rekenhof) issued a stark warning on 26 May 2026, stating that the federal government must find between 15 and 20 billion euros to bring the country’s budget deficit down to the EU-mandated 3 percent threshold. The figure is three to four times larger than the 5 to 7 billion euro savings package the government had previously targeted, according to VRT NWS.

A Widening Fiscal Gap

Councillor Rudi Moens of the Court of Audit presented the findings to the Chamber of Representatives, warning that the European criterion will “not even come close” to being sufficient to bring the deficit back near 3 percent of GDP in the medium term.

The budget deficit is projected at 24.5 billion euros for 2026, rising to 36.2 billion euros by 2029. Meanwhile, government revenues are expected to decline from 30.4 percent of GDP in 2026 to 29.5 percent by the end of the legislature, while interest payments on the national debt are projected to surge from 12.5 billion euros to 17.5 billion euros.

The Debt Snowball Threat

Moens warned that Belgium is “dangerously close” to a debt snowball effect (rentesneeuwbaleffect) — a vicious cycle where the average interest rate on government debt exceeds nominal economic growth, causing the debt-to-GDP ratio to increase automatically even without new borrowing.

The Court of Audit noted a “small light point”: according to the Debt Agency, recent rating downgrades have had limited impact so far. However, the Court acknowledged that its projections do not account for the Middle East conflict or the energy crisis, meaning the situation could deteriorate further.

Government’s Response Under Pressure

Prime Minister Bart De Wever (N-VA) had previously stated that two legislatures would be needed to steer the budget back to safer waters. The government had been targeting an agreement on additional savings of 5 to 7 billion euros by 21 July 2026 — a figure the Court of Audit now describes as dramatically insufficient.

The largest savings are currently coming from pensions, unemployment benefits, and disability benefits. However, as P-Magazine notes in its analysis, this creates a growing tension: while the government prepares cuts to social protection, it is simultaneously committing tens of billions to military expansion under Defence Minister Theo Francken to meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP target.

EU Context and History

Belgium has been under an EU Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) since July 2024, along with France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland, and Slovakia. As reported by The Brussels Times, the procedure was launched because Belgium exceeded both the 3 percent deficit ceiling and the 60 percent debt-to-GDP threshold. The EU Council formally launched the procedures against seven member states in July 2024.

Belgium has one of the highest public debt levels in the Eurozone, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100 percent. The country has run persistent budget deficits for years, and the COVID-19 pandemic and energy crisis significantly worsened the fiscal position.

The Defence Spending Dilemma

The Court of Audit’s warning creates acute tension within the De Wever government. The coalition must simultaneously find 15 to 20 billion euros in savings, increase defence spending toward NATO targets, manage social discontent from cuts to welfare programs, and navigate the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure with strict deadlines.

Adding to the pressure, the government’s planned VAT increases on cultural events, sports, and takeaway food were scrapped, creating a hole of at least 400 million euros that must be offset through other measures, as VRT NWS reported in February.

What’s Next

The Court of Audit’s warning represents a significant escalation in the assessment of Belgium’s fiscal situation. The required 15 to 20 billion euros represents approximately 3 to 4 percent of Belgium’s GDP — a massive consolidation effort by historical standards.

The government faces a critical deadline of 21 July 2026 to reach an agreement on additional savings, though the Court’s report makes clear that even this target is now far below what is actually needed. Belgium’s ability to avoid the debt snowball effect and meet its EU obligations will depend on the political will to implement measures far more ambitious than anything currently on the table.

As the Belgian Court of Audit makes clear in its official publication, the window for corrective action is narrowing — and the cost of delay is rising by the day.