California Democrats Face Crowded Race to Replace Newsom

With just days until California’s June 2 primary, Democrats across the state are wrestling with a historically crowded and fragmented field of candidates vying to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom. Voter turnout remains unusually low, and many Democrats say they are holding onto their ballots, uncertain which candidate to support in what has become one of the most unpredictable gubernatorial races in recent memory.

According to AP News, only about 11% of California’s roughly 23 million registered voters had cast ballots as of May 27 — a strikingly low figure, with Democrats returning their ballots at a slower pace than Republicans. “My joke is: Call your Democratic parents and tell them to turn in their ballot,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist tracking ballot returns. “They are holding onto the ballot because they have seen this kind of topsy-turvy governor’s race.”

A Fractured Democratic Field

California’s top-two primary system places all candidates on a single ballot regardless of party, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the November general election. With approximately 61 candidates on the ballot — including eight major Democrats and two prominent Republicans — the risk of a fragmented Democratic vote has been a central concern throughout the campaign.

The leading Democratic contenders include former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who has surged in recent polls to about 19-20% support; billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, polling at roughly 17-19%; and former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, at approximately 10-13%. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond round out the field with single-digit support.

On the Republican side, conservative commentator Steve Hilton — endorsed by President Donald Trump in April — and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco have consolidated GOP support, each polling in the mid-to-high teens. Emerson College Polling found Becerra leading the field at 19%, followed by Hilton and Steyer tied at 17%, with Porter at 10% and Mahan at 8%.

Voter Reluctance and the ‘Lesser Evil’ Dynamic

The AP News article captures a mood of deep voter frustration. Colin Culver, a 21-year-old San Diego resident who voted for Steyer, described his choice as “kind of pinching my nose and voting this go-around rather than being excited.” David Murayama, a 29-year-old Los Angeles attorney, said he found Steyer appealing at first but ultimately voted for Becerra as the “lesser evil,” unable to trust a billionaire to follow through on his promises.

Amber Larson, a 41-year-old judicial analyst from Chico, captured the dilemma facing many voters: “Are we at a point where only a billionaire can beat an establishment, career politician?” She planned to vote for Steyer despite her skepticism, unwilling to “throw my vote away” on a long-shot candidate.

The Steyer Paradox: Billionaire as Populist

Steyer’s campaign represents a unique political experiment. The hedge fund founder turned climate activist has spent over $132 million of his own money, much of it on a message of taxing the wealthy and making California affordable. As The Guardian reported, Steyer campaigns in a beige baseball cap embroidered with the words “class traitor,” telling voters: “People are very skeptical of billionaires. I’m skeptical of billionaires because we’ve seen so many billionaires being selfish and arrogant.”

Lorena Gonzalez, president of the California Federation of Labor Unions, acknowledged the tension: “There’s no question that we think working people represent working people best. But if there is a billionaire who says, ‘I will take on this entire system, shit, all right, let’s see.’”

The ‘Lockout’ Fear and What’s at Stake

Democratic leaders have spent months warning that a divided vote could allow two Republicans to advance to the general election, shutting Democrats out entirely — a scenario made possible by the top-two primary system. While that outcome now appears less likely as Becerra has consolidated establishment support, the fear remains real for many voters.

“I think it is terrifying to think about what Trump would do to Californians if we had a governor who at every turn cooperated with him rather than stood up for our California values,” Porter said at a candidate forum, as reported by CalMatters. “So I don’t think it’s a certainty, but I do think it’s a risk, and I think the stakes are very, very, very high.”

What to Watch Next

The primary election takes place on June 2, 2026. The top two finishers — regardless of party — will advance to the November 3 general election. With a significant number of voters still undecided and Democrats returning ballots more slowly than usual, the final days of the campaign could shift the race’s dynamics considerably. The outcome will not only determine California’s next governor but also serve as a bellwether for Democratic strategy heading into the 2028 presidential cycle.