China’s ‘Three Summers’ Harvest Faces Heavy Rain Threat
China’s critical “Three Summers” (三夏) agricultural season — the busiest period encompassing summer wheat harvest, summer planting, and field management — is facing significant challenges from persistent heavy rainfall across major wheat-producing regions. The central question on farmers’ minds is whether “rotten field rain” (烂场雨), which devastated crops in 2023, could repeat on a national scale.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the situation is regionally differentiated. While some areas have suffered significant losses, others are benefiting from the moisture, and government preparations are more extensive than in previous years.
The Regional Picture
From mid-May 2026, a major precipitation event affected 14 provinces across China, with heavy rain, torrential downpours, and extreme rainfall breaking historical records in multiple locations. As Sina News reported, the unusual intensity and early arrival of this year’s rains have been linked to a rare atmospheric circulation pattern, with the subtropical high positioned further north than usual, channeling warm, moist air from the South China Sea into southern regions.
The hardest-hit area has been Xiangyang in Hubei Province. Continuous rain during the wheat harvest window caused sprouting in unharvested fields. The normal one-week harvest window was compressed to just three days — May 21 to 23. As detailed by Guancha.cn, freshly harvested wheat in Xiangyang had moisture content above 40 percent, compared to the normal level of around 20 percent, with some samples so wet that moisture meters could not obtain a reading. Wet, sprouted wheat sold for only 0.3 to 0.4 yuan per jin, a fraction of the standard price of approximately 1.2 yuan per jin for dry, quality wheat.
Harvesting costs also surged. Normally around 40 yuan per mu in Xiangyang — the lowest in the country due to its position as the first stop for cross-regional harvesters — prices for some plots reached over 100 yuan per mu as crawler-type harvesters became scarce. Farmers faced a double squeeze: low prices for their damaged wheat and high costs to harvest it.
A Nuanced Outlook
Despite the severity in Hubei, the broader picture is more nuanced. Nanyang in Henan Province, despite being adjacent to Xiangyang, has not experienced significant sprouting. According to on-the-ground reporting, Nanyang’s wheat matured about 10 days later due to different soil types and delayed planting from 2025’s autumn rains. Harvest began on May 27, with peak expected around June 2-3, and no major damage has been reported.
In Anhui Province, authorities have mobilized extensively. The Farmers’ Daily reported that the province has deployed 160,000 large high-performance combine harvesters, distributed 28,700 cross-regional operation permits, and prepared 21,400 grain dryers with a daily drying capacity exceeding 700,000 tons. Provincial governments have established wheat harvesting leadership groups, issued emergency plans, and set up service hotlines — a marked improvement in preparedness compared to 2023.
Meanwhile, in Shandong Province, the rain has stopped. Xinhua reported that wheat ears are described as large and full, and major grain farmers express confidence in a good harvest. For wheat still in the late grain-filling stage in northern regions, the rainfall has been beneficial, providing essential soil moisture for the final growth phase.
Food Security Implications
China is the world’s largest wheat producer, with annual production exceeding 135 million tons. The main wheat-producing provinces — Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu — account for the vast majority of output. The 2026 winter wheat crop was planted on approximately 23.5 million hectares, and any significant damage during the harvest season carries major implications for domestic food security and global grain markets.
The 2023 “rotten field rain” disaster in Henan Province remains fresh in farmers’ memories. In late May and early June of that year, continuous rainfall caused widespread sprouting and mold, with some estimates suggesting billions of yuan in losses. The incident was compounded by logistical issues, including reports that hundreds of harvesters were blocked on highways, delaying emergency harvesting efforts.
What to Watch
The next seven to ten days will be decisive. With forecasts indicating more rainfall, the peak harvest period for Henan, Shandong, and Hebei — the country’s largest wheat-producing provinces — will be critical. Any new severe weather system could change the outlook dramatically.
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events during critical agricultural periods also raises longer-term questions about China’s agricultural resilience. Experts point to the need for investments in weather-resilient crop varieties, improved drainage infrastructure, and expanded drying capacity to protect against a future where such events may become more common.
For now, the message from Chinese authorities is cautiously optimistic: the 2023 disaster has not repeated on a national scale, but vigilance remains essential as the harvest season reaches its peak.