Can Democrats Win Back Young Men Souring on Trump?
Just over a year after President Trump won re-election with historically strong support from young voters, that coalition is rapidly unraveling. A cascade of polling data shows that Americans under 30 — and young men in particular — have soured on Trump at a pace unprecedented in modern polling, opening a potential window for Democrats to reclaim a demographic that had seemed to be slipping away.
According to a CBS News analysis, Trump’s approval among 18-to-29-year-olds has fallen from 55% just after his January 2025 inauguration to just 28% by July 2025 — a 27-point drop in six months. The decline has been especially steep among young men, whose approval ratings began to fall sharply in April 2025, coinciding with a downturn in the U.S. stock market. The gender gap in Trump approval has shrunk as young men’s ratings have fallen faster than young women’s.
The Scale of the Collapse
The numbers paint a stark picture. A January 2026 New York Times/Siena College poll found Trump’s approval at just 37% among all registered voters, with 59% disapproving — his worst showing in that survey. By May 2026, a new NYT/Siena poll showed Trump’s disapproval holding at 59%, with independents and 2024 non-voters swinging back toward Democrats by 24 points, according to an analysis by data journalist G. Elliott Morris.
Among young people specifically, the economic dimension is critical. CBS News polling found that six in 10 young Americans say the economy is getting worse, and an equal share say Trump’s policies are making them worse off financially — a complete reversal from the optimism they felt at his inauguration. Seventy-two percent say the administration focuses too much on tariffs, while seven in 10 say it is not focusing enough on lowering prices.
“A majority now say Mr. Trump is doing different things than he promised during the 2024 campaign,” wrote Kabir Khanna, CBS News elections analyst, in his analysis. “That’s a reversal in sentiment from early February, when seven in 10 said he’s doing what he said he would. And it’s young men who have been the most likely to flip on this question.”
The Gen Z Gender Gap
The political divide between young men and women remains the widest of any generation. An NBC News Stay Tuned Poll conducted in April 2025 found that 45% of young men approve of Trump compared to just 24% of young women — a 21-point gap. The partisan divide is equally striking: 52% of Gen Z women identify as Democrats versus 33% of Gen Z men, while 38% of Gen Z men identify as Republican compared to 20% of Gen Z women.
Yet the very speed at which young men are abandoning Trump suggests their attachment to the president was shallower than many assumed. Rather than a durable realignment, the 2024 election results may have reflected a temporary opening — one that is now closing as economic realities set in.
Democrats Begin to Respond
Democratic strategists are acutely aware of both the opportunity and the challenge. After the 2024 election, the party engaged in extensive soul-searching about its appeal to male voters, and some Democratic governors have already begun to act.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont all announced initiatives in early 2025 aimed at addressing the specific challenges facing boys and men, as NBC News reported. Moore has pledged to direct his entire administration to help struggling boys and men, citing his own difficult youth. Whitmer announced plans to boost young men’s enrollment in higher education and skills training, while Lamont launched what he called a “DEI initiative” to get more men into teaching.
“The well-being of our young men and boys has not been a societal priority,” Moore said. “I want Maryland to be the one that is aggressive and unapologetic about being able to address it and being able to fix it.”
Richard Reeves, founder of the American Institute for Boys and Men, who has informally advised Moore’s staff, said the initiatives reflect a necessary shift. “I think it’s part of a growing recognition among Democrats that neglecting the problems of boys and men is neither good policy nor good politics,” he told NBC News. “If Democrats weren’t thinking about male voters, and especially young male voters, then it would be a pretty serious dereliction of duty, looking at the polls.”
The Challenge Ahead
Despite these efforts, Democrats face significant hurdles in winning back young men. Shauna Daly, a Democratic strategist and co-founder of the Young Men Research Project, said the party has struggled to connect with this cohort on a fundamental level. “Where the Democratic Party has really fallen short with this cohort is that they don’t feel like Democrats are fighting for them,” she said.
John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, offered a more nuanced assessment. “When Trump talks about fixing the economy and being strong, they hear someone who gets it,” he said. “That doesn’t mean they trust him. But it does mean he’s speaking to their reality in a way most Democrats aren’t.”
The party has made some efforts to engage with “bro culture” — appearing on sports podcasts and trying to make the party seem less “uncool” to young voters. But whether these outreach efforts will prove effective or risk feeling inauthentic remains an open question.
What to Watch For
With the 2026 midterms approaching, the stakes are high. Young voters turned out at record levels in both the 2018 and 2022 midterms, and if Trump’s numbers do not improve, his weakness could drag down Republican congressional candidates. The CBS News analysis noted that in 2022, young voters turned out at a rate that came close to saving the Democrats’ House majority.
For Democrats, the question is whether they can convert Trump’s weakness into durable gains with a demographic that has felt overlooked by the party. The governors’ initiatives offer a policy blueprint, but national messaging remains a work in progress. As Della Volpe put it: “The truth is, young men are speaking. They’ve been telling us they want respect, opportunity, and strength. If Democrats don’t listen — and act — they’ll keep losing ground. But this moment offers hope.”
The next several months will determine whether that hope translates into votes — or whether young men who have soured on Trump simply stay home.