U.S. Cattle Herd Hits 75-Year Low, Driving Beef Prices Higher

The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to 86.2 million head — the smallest since 1951 — according to USDA data, setting the stage for continued increases in beef prices that are already near record highs. The decline, driven by drought, rising costs, a parasitic fly outbreak at the Mexican border, and decades of consolidation in the meatpacking industry, is squeezing both ranchers and consumers as the nation grapples with persistent food inflation.

Ground beef reached $6.69 per pound in December 2025, a 72% increase since 2020 and the highest price since the Department of Labor began tracking in 1984, as NPR reported. The USDA forecasts wholesale beef prices will rise another 6.9% in 2026.

Why the Herd Is Shrinking

The contraction of the U.S. cattle herd is the result of multiple converging pressures that have been building for years.

Rising operational costs have made cattle farming increasingly difficult. Farmers face higher prices for diesel, fertilizer, equipment parts, and the animals themselves. Amanda Hall, who runs Hallstead Farms in Lexington, Kentucky, with her husband Reid, told NPR that while they could expand their herd, the financial risk gives them pause. “We could put another 100 head out on grass, with what our grass will hopefully be this spring, but then you’re also wondering too, ‘Is that too much of a risk?’” she said. “You’re also paying higher interest costs.”

Drought and climate pressures are compounding the problem. Severe weather, including droughts and wildfires that are becoming more frequent due to climate change, has imposed significant costs on producers. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found in a 2023 paper that farm earnings decline with drought, with farms in severely affected areas suffering the worst losses.

An aging farmer population is also contributing to the decline. The median U.S. farmer is 58 years old, making agriculture the oldest workforce in the country, according to a 2023 U.S. Senate Committee on Aging report. Reid Hall noted the challenge of attracting new entrants: “I think there’s still a sector of young people that have an interest in ag, but the barriers to entry to agriculture are huge.”

The number of cattle operations has fallen from 882,692 in 2017 to 732,123 in 2022 — a 17% decline, according to the USDA Census.

The Screwworm Crisis

In May 2025, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins blocked all imports of live cattle, horses, and bison across the U.S.-Mexico border due to the spread of the New World screwworm — a parasitic fly that lays eggs inside living animals. Mexico had accounted for about 62% of U.S. cattle imports between 2020 and 2024, according to USDA data.

With that supply cut off, demand for domestic cattle has intensified. Jason Cleere, a professor and extension beef cattle specialist at Texas A&M University, explained: “If you take that number of cattle out of the beef supply chain, yes, it’s going to increase the value of the rest of the calves that ranchers are selling domestically here.”

Rebuilding the herd is a slow process. A cow’s gestation period is nine months, and calves typically grow for at least 17 months before slaughter. The livestock industry operates on a roughly 10-year “cattle cycle,” meaning meaningful supply increases are years away.

Meatpacking Consolidation and Political Intervention

Four companies — JBS (Brazil), Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef (Brazilian-owned) — now control approximately 85% of the U.S. cattle processing market, up from 25% in 1977, according to USDA data. Critics argue this concentration gives meatpackers disproportionate pricing power.

Scott Wilbeck, a co-owner of two Texas cattle operations, described the situation bluntly: “It used to be you had butchers everywhere, and you had a lot of different options on how to market your cattle. The ranchers keep getting paid less and less for cattle, but yet your prices at the grocery store keep going higher and higher.”

In November 2025, President Trump directed the Justice Department to investigate the top four meatpackers for potential collusion, price fixing, and price manipulation. The White House slammed the “foreign-dominated conglomerates that control America’s meat supply.”

At the same time, the administration has pursued a second strategy: expanding imports. In February 2026, Trump quadrupled the low-tariff quota for Argentine lean beef trimmings by 80,000 metric tons. The U.S. imported a record 4.64 billion pounds of beef in 2024, up roughly 24% year-over-year.

Bill Bullard, CEO of the cattle and sheep producers group R-CALF USA, criticized the approach: “America has been growing its dependence on foreign beef and cattle in order to meet its beef protein appetite. So our [domestic] industry has been shrinking.”

Beef Production Defies the Trend

Despite the smaller herd, U.S. beef production has remained remarkably steady. The U.S. produced 11,814 metric tons of beef and veal in 2025, a slight increase from 2005 and up significantly from 7,195 metric tons in 1960. The reason: cattle are much larger than they used to be.

“There are fewer head, but those head are all going to be weighing 200, 300 pounds more than they did back in the 1950s,” Wilbeck said. A steer that weighed 1,000 pounds in the 1950s may now reach 1,500 pounds due to genetic improvements.

What Comes Next

Beef prices are expected to remain near record highs through at least late 2026. The screwworm border closure continues to restrict supply from Mexico with no clear timeline for reopening. Argentine imports may provide some relief, but the additional 80,000 metric tons represents a small fraction of total U.S. consumption, which is projected at 29.38 billion pounds in 2026.

Longer-term structural concerns loom. The aging farmer population and high barriers to entry suggest the decline in cattle operations may be a secular trend rather than a cyclical one. Climate change is increasing drought frequency and severity, raising operational risks. And growing U.S. dependence on imported beef raises food security questions.

Reid Hall offered a cautious note of hope about the possibility of rebuilding: “You’re dealing with a live animal. It’s not going to happen in five years. It’s going to take time to do it. But, like I say, if it’s appealing for people to start keeping breeding stock again and making those changes, hopefully that will happen.”