Belgium Shaken as MR Plunges, PS and PTB Surge in New Poll

Belgium’s political landscape has been rocked by the release of the 2026 RTBF National Survey, which shows the liberal MR party suffering severe losses in Wallonia and Brussels while the Socialist PS and far-left PTB make significant gains. The survey, conducted jointly by RTBF, VRT, and De Standaard in partnership with the University of Antwerp and ULB, also reveals widespread dissatisfaction with all levels of government, with the Brussels regional government receiving the lowest ratings.

A Dramatic Reversal for the Liberals

Just two years after winning the 2024 federal and regional elections with 28.2% in Wallonia and 21.5% in Brussels, the MR has seen its support collapse. In Wallonia, the party now stands at just 20% — a loss of 8.2 percentage points — dropping to second place behind the PS. The situation is even starker in Brussels, where the MR has fallen to 14.2%, losing a third of its 2024 voters.

The MR’s losses are not simply a shift to the right. According to the survey, the largest voter flow is from MR to the centrist Les Engagés (3% of the total sample), while 2.7% of MR voters are moving toward abstention or blank votes. Perhaps most surprisingly, 1.5% of former MR voters are switching to the far-left PTB — a cross-ideological shift that analysts attribute to the MR’s 2024 campaign, which attracted left-leaning voters with its purchasing power message.

PS and PTB: The Big Winners

The PS has reclaimed its traditional position as Wallonia’s leading party with 24.9% of voting intentions, up 2.9 points from 2024. The party now dominates eight of twelve key policy themes in the public debate, including healthcare, social security, pensions, and education.

But the most striking rise belongs to the PTB. In Wallonia, the far-left party has surged to 18.6% — a gain of 7 percentage points — and now sits just behind Les Engagés in fourth place. In Brussels, the PTB has become the largest party with 24.4%, leapfrogging both the PS (15.9%) and the MR. Only 7 percentage points separate the top four parties in Wallonia, signaling an intensely competitive landscape.

Government Satisfaction at Historic Lows

The survey paints a bleak picture of public confidence in Belgium’s institutions. When asked to rate their governments on a scale of 0 to 10, Belgians gave below-average marks to every level except local authorities in Flanders and Wallonia. The Brussels regional government received the lowest satisfaction scores across all regions and government levels.

According to RTBF’s companion report on satisfaction, voters for the PTB and its Flemish counterpart PVDA are the most dissatisfied across all regions, while N-VA and MR voters express the highest satisfaction with Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s federal government.

Internal Tensions Erupt in Brussels MR

The poll results have triggered a public feud within the Brussels MR. Deputy Olivier Willocq, a former CEO of the Brussels Chamber of Commerce, publicly criticized the party’s strategy, stating: “By hardening the tone, we didn’t win the right. We lost the heart. The liberalism I defend brings people together, it doesn’t divide.”

Former MR group leader Clémentine Barzin responded by urging Willocq to channel his concerns through parliamentary work. Willocq fired back on social media: “Don’t you think that if you feel the need to advise me publicly on X, rather than picking up the phone, that is precisely the sign that there is a real unease within the Brussels MR?”

As La Libre Belgique reported, the exchange underscores deep divisions over the party’s direction under national president Georges-Louis Bouchez.

Economic Concerns Dominate Voter Priorities

Survey experts note that socio-economic issues are “incontestably dominant” this year, with the fieldwork conducted amid rising prices, energy costs, federal austerity measures, and the economic fallout from the war in Iran. Parties positioning themselves on the cultural cleavage line — such as Groen, Ecolo, and Vlaams Belang — are struggling or stagnating.

The MR’s reserve of potential additional voters is the lowest among major parties at just 12.3%, compared to 18.4% for Les Engagés and 16.7% for the PS. This suggests limited room for recovery without a significant strategic shift.

What’s Next

With only 7 points separating the top four parties in Wallonia and the PTB now leading in Brussels, Belgium’s political map is being redrawn. The Arizona coalition government — comprising N-VA, MR, Les Engagés, CD&V, and Vooruit — faces growing headwinds as its largest French-speaking partner hemorrhages support. The survey’s finding that 38% of Belgians feel no political figure represents them (up from 32% in 2025) points to a deepening crisis of representation that could reshape the country’s politics well before the next scheduled elections.