California Governor Primary: Trump Pick Steve Hilton Leads in Race to Replace Newsom

California voters head to the polls on Tuesday for a pivotal gubernatorial primary that could reshape the political landscape of the nation’s most populous state. With 61 candidates on the ballot under California’s top-two “jungle primary” system, the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has narrowed to a handful of serious contenders, with former Fox News host and Trump-endorsed Republican Steve Hilton leading in recent polls.

The High-Stakes Primary

Under California’s jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party, and the top two finishers advance to the November general election. This creates the possibility of two candidates from the same party facing off — a scenario that has both Republicans and Democrats on edge.

According to AP News, the race was upended in April when Rep. Eric Swalwell, who had been consolidating establishment Democratic support, dropped out after being accused of sexual assault. His exit reshuffled the Democratic field and opened the door for former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra to consolidate much of Swalwell’s establishment backing.

The Leading Candidates

Steve Hilton (Republican)

Hilton, 56, is perhaps the most unconventional candidate in the field. A British-born former director of strategy for UK Prime Minister David Cameron, he later became a Fox News host and was a regular target of satire on British television. Now a dual U.S.-U.K. citizen living in Atherton, he has Trump’s endorsement and a platform modeled partly on Elon Musk’s government efficiency approach.

Hilton has pledged to make the first $100,000 of income tax-free, lower gas prices to $3 per gallon, cut electric bills by half, and slash climate change programs. He has warned of a “Doomsday Scenario” if fellow Republican Chad Bianco does not drop out, arguing that a split GOP vote could allow two Democrats to advance.

“We’ve had 16 years of one-party rule, and the results are in. And it’s a massive disappointment on every front,” Hilton told TIME magazine, adding that the solution is to “stop doing stupid things and just lift this massive burden that everyone is laboring under in California.”

Xavier Becerra (Democrat)

Becerra brings 35 years of political experience, having served as a U.S. Representative, California Attorney General, and U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary under President Biden. He has consolidated support from major labor unions, Planned Parenthood, and Equality California, positioning himself as a steady hand to guide the state and stand up to Trump.

Tom Steyer (Democrat)

The billionaire hedge fund founder and climate activist has poured record-breaking personal spending into advertising, making his face inescapable across the state. Running as a progressive populist, Steyer has been endorsed by the Bernie Sanders-aligned group Our Revolution. Recent polls show him tied with Hilton at 25%.

Katie Porter (Democrat)

The former U.S. Representative from Orange County built a national following with her whiteboard policy explanations and viral congressional hearings. She is running on a populist, anti-corporate platform but has battled an image as a mercurial leader after leaked videos showed her berating an aide.

Chad Bianco (Republican)

The Riverside County Sheriff has emphasized his three-decade law enforcement career, pledging to tackle crime and homelessness. He stoked national controversy when his office seized 1,000 boxes of election material including more than half a million ballots from a 2025 special election — a move the state Supreme Court ordered him to halt.

Matt Mahan (Democrat)

The Mayor of San Jose is running as a moderate Democrat with a “back to basics” technocratic approach. His backing from Silicon Valley tech executives has been controversial among labor unions and populists.

Antonio Villaraigosa (Democrat)

The former Mayor of Los Angeles and first Latino to hold that office in over a century is pitching himself as a pragmatic, centrist problem-solver. He ran for governor in 2018 but finished third in the primary.

The Republican Split Risk

The most critical dynamic in the final days before the primary is the Republican vote split. With two major GOP candidates — Hilton and Bianco — there is genuine concern that a divided Republican electorate could allow Democrats to claim both top-two spots. Hilton has publicly demanded Bianco exit the race, warning that “We could have Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra in the general election. That is a disaster for California.”

What’s at Stake

California has been under Democratic control since 2011, with Democrats holding supermajorities in both legislative chambers for most of the past decade. The state voted against Trump by 20 points in 2024. Yet 54% of Californians think the state is going in the wrong direction, and 69% expect bad financial times ahead, according to a PPIC survey.

If Hilton advances and wins in November, it would end 16 years of Democratic governors and dramatically shift California’s policy direction on taxes, climate, labor, and immigration. The outcome also carries national implications: Newsom is widely expected to run for president in 2028, and a Republican successor would reshape the state’s relationship with the Trump White House.

What to Watch For

Polls open Tuesday at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. The key questions: Will Chad Bianco drop out before Election Day? Can any Democratic candidate consolidate support in the final hours? And how will the Swalwell scandal’s aftermath affect Democratic turnout? The answers will determine not just who advances to November, but the future direction of the world’s fifth-largest economy.