Exxon, Chevron Warn Oil Prices May Hit $160 in Hormuz Crisis

Top executives from two of the world’s largest oil companies have issued stark warnings that global crude oil prices could skyrocket to $150–$160 per barrel in the coming weeks, as dwindling inventory levels approach what one called “unheard of” lows. The warnings, delivered at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference in New York on May 28, underscore the deepening strain on global energy markets caused by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Dire Warnings from Industry Leaders

ExxonMobil Senior Vice President Neil Chapman told the conference that global commercial inventories of crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel have been drawn down to critically low levels, and once the operational floor is reached, prices will “shoot up.” According to Fox Business, Chapman warned that dated Brent, the global benchmark, could surge to $150–$160 per barrel.

“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean really, really low levels,” Chapman said. “You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see prices shoot up.”

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, speaking at the same conference, echoed the concern. Wirth warned that the market’s “buffers and shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down” and that physical oil prices will face significant upward pressure in June and July, as reported by TheStreet.

“Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices,” Wirth said. “There’s more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The warnings come against the backdrop of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, the largest disruption to global energy supply since the 1970s. The crisis began on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. Iran retaliated by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 21-mile waterway through which approximately 20% of global seaborne oil trade and 25% of LNG transit, according to Wikipedia.

Since the blockade began, shipping traffic through the strait has dropped to near zero, removing an estimated 12–13 million barrels per day from global markets. Oil prices initially surged from roughly $75 per barrel in late February to a peak of $126 in March — the largest monthly increase in history. Prices have since moderated to the $90–$110 range as markets priced in hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, but executives warn this calm is deceptive.

Inventories Draining at Record Pace

According to The Motley Fool, Goldman Sachs estimates that global oil inventories are plunging by a record 8.7 million barrels per day in May 2026. JPMorgan previously calculated that of the 8.4 billion barrels in global oil inventories at the start of 2026, only 0.8 billion barrels were realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress.

Chapman explained that the current price moderation — crude trading in the $90–$110 range for the past six weeks — has been artificially sustained by running down inventories and releasing strategic petroleum reserves. “It can’t last forever,” he warned.

ADNOC CEO Sultan al-Jaber added further cause for concern, stating that even after a ceasefire, it would take at least four months to restore 80% of pre-conflict flows through the strait, with full flows unlikely before the first or second quarter of 2027.

Economic and Consumer Implications

If Brent crude reaches $150–$160 per barrel, U.S. gasoline prices would likely surge well above $5 per gallon, with diesel and jet fuel prices rising even more sharply. Such a spike would add significant inflationary pressure, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise interest rates.

Wirth also warned of broader economic risks. “If this goes on for long, it tips us into an economic slowdown or a recession,” he said, noting that demand destruction from prohibitively high prices could eventually rebalance the market — but at a severe cost to the global economy.

ExxonMobil’s Texas Move

On the same day as the price warnings, ExxonMobil shareholders approved a plan to move the company’s legal home from New Jersey to Texas with approximately 71.3% support, as reported by KWBU/KERA News. The company, originally incorporated in New Jersey in 1882 as Standard Oil of New Jersey, already has its headquarters in Texas and 75% of its U.S. employees based there.

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said Texas’ legal and regulatory environment was a better fit. “Aligning our legal home with our operating home, in a state that understands our business and has a stake in the company’s success, is important,” Woods stated.

James Lee, CEO of the Texas Stock Exchange, called the vote “a watershed moment for America’s capital markets,” suggesting hundreds of companies representing trillions of dollars in market capitalization are poised to make similar moves.

What to Watch For

The oil market is at a critical inflection point. If the U.S. and Iran reach a ceasefire deal that fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, the worst-case scenario of prices hitting $150 could be avoided. However, ADNOC’s timeline for restoring full flows suggests the supply crisis could persist for months or even years.

Key questions remain: How much additional inventory can be drawn down before the operational floor is reached? Will China release its strategic petroleum reserves to help stabilize markets? And can the global economy absorb another major energy shock without tipping into recession?

For now, the warnings from ExxonMobil and Chevron serve as a sobering reminder that the world’s energy safety buffers are nearly exhausted — and the next few weeks will be decisive.