2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Below-Normal Outlook Begins

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially opened on June 1, bringing with it a forecast that marks a dramatic shift from recent years. For the first time in nearly a decade, meteorologists are predicting a below-normal season — a reprieve driven by a rapidly developing El Niño that is expected to suppress tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin.

According to NOAA, the agency’s outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season, with 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes expected. The Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project issued a similar early forecast in April, projecting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes — the lowest seasonal prediction since 2015.

The El Niño Factor

The primary driver behind the subdued forecast is a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific. El Niño — the natural warming of central Pacific waters — warps global weather patterns and increases wind shear across the Atlantic, disrupting tropical systems before they can organize. NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs confirmed there is a 98% chance of El Niño developing this summer and an 80% chance it will be moderate or strong.

“It’s mostly because of ‘the elephant in the room’ which is an El Niño,” said Suzana Camargo, a climate scientist at Columbia University. Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany, explained that “a stronger than normal wind shear tends to tilt storms as they try to develop. It pushes dry air into storms and prevents storms from developing in the first place.”

This marks a sharp contrast with the past decade, during which nine of the last 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons were above-normal or hyperactive. The 2025 season, while starting slowly, produced a near-record three Category 5 hurricanes, including Hurricane Melissa, which devastated Jamaica and Cuba. The name “Melissa” was officially retired by the World Meteorological Organization in March 2026 — the 100th Atlantic storm name ever retired — and replaced with “Molly.”

Competing Factors and Uncertainty

While El Niño suppresses Atlantic activity, forecasters caution that other factors could still fuel storms. Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain warmer than normal, which could counteract some of El Niño’s suppressing effects. Weaker trade winds also tend to support more activity. However, Saharan dust plumes are already moving across the Atlantic into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Main Development Region are cooler than in recent record-breaking years, both of which are providing early-season stability.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

New Technology for the 2026 Season

NOAA is deploying several new technologies this year to improve hurricane forecasting and communication. For the first time, data from small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) will be integrated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model, which scientists estimate can improve hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10%. The National Hurricane Center has also updated its forecast cone graphic to include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. Additionally, Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) services are expanding to cover nearly 100% of the U.S. population by late September 2026.

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs.

Pacific Basin Activity

El Niño has the opposite effect on the Pacific. The East Pacific hurricane season, which began May 15, is forecast to be above-normal with a 70% chance of increased activity. NOAA predicts 15–22 named storms, 9–14 hurricanes, and 5–9 major hurricanes in that basin. As of June 1, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas for potential development, including Invest 90E, which carries a 90% chance of development. Meanwhile, Typhoon Jangmi is active in the Western Pacific, following Typhoon Sinlaku — a super typhoon with 175 mph winds that struck in April.

What This Means for Coastal Communities

Despite the below-normal forecast, experts uniformly emphasize that preparation should not be relaxed. Inflation-adjusted global tropical cyclone damage has increased nearly tenfold from the 1980s ($11.4 billion per year) to the past decade ($109.7 billion per year), with three-quarters of damage occurring in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean, according to Munich Re.

“We should expect a less active year than certainly what we’ve seen recently, and perhaps significantly so below average,” said Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany. “But again, it only takes one to cause real devastation and destruction in the mainland U.S. or even in Hawaii.”

NOAA will update its seasonal outlook in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically extends from mid-September through October. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30.