Majority of Belgians Now View US as Adversary, Poll Shows

A historic shift in Belgian public opinion has seen a majority of citizens now view the United States as an adversary rather than an ally, according to the 2026 Belgian National Survey (“De Stemming” / “L’Enquête Nationale”). The survey, conducted by the University of Antwerp and the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) for RTBF, VRT NWS, and De Standaard, reveals that more than half of Belgians across all three regions now consider the United States an adversary — surpassing the share who view China negatively. Over 80% of respondents simultaneously expressed support for a fully militarily autonomous Europe, marking a fundamental reassessment of transatlantic relations.

Context: A Geopolitical Earthquake

The survey was conducted from March 9 to April 5, 2026, against a backdrop of extraordinary global turbulence. The Russia-Ukraine war continued into its fourth year, the US attacked Iran, and Tehran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz — directly affecting European energy prices. The Trump administration had made territorial claims on Greenland, escalated trade tariffs on Europe, and positioned itself as an increasingly distant NATO partner.

In February 2026, diplomatic tensions between Washington and Brussels reached an unprecedented level when US Ambassador to Belgium Bill White used social media to sharply criticize Belgian judicial authorities investigating three Antwerp-based religious circumcisers, calling the prosecution “anti-Jewish” and “absurd.” Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot summoned Ambassador White, and Prime Minister Bart De Wever publicly rebuked him, stating that “provoquer systématiquement des polémiques n’est pas une manière de se comporter entre alliés” (“systematically provoking controversy is not how allies behave”).

Key Findings: The Numbers Behind the Shift

The survey of 5,354 voting-age residents — 2,145 in Flanders, 2,126 in Wallonia, and 1,083 in Brussels — produced stark results. More than one in two Belgians now considers the United States an adversary, with some describing it as a “threat.” Only 10% or fewer across all regions still view the US as an ally. As VRT NWS reported, “het resultaat is opmerkelijk: de helft van de Belgen ziet de VS, de traditionele bondgenoot van Europa, als een tegenstander” (“the result is remarkable: half of Belgians see the US, Europe’s traditional ally, as an opponent”).

Strikingly, the United States is now viewed more negatively than China. Approximately 40-44% of Belgians see China as an adversary, compared to over 50% for the US. Russia remains the primary adversary, viewed negatively by 80% of Flemings, 67% of Walloons, and 63% of Brussels residents — the most unambiguous finding across all regions and political affiliations.

The NATO Paradox

Despite deep distrust of the United States, approximately 80% of Belgians believe the country should remain in NATO. As Jean-Benoît Pilet, co-author of the survey and politologist at ULB, explained to RTBF: “The Cold War conception of a Western bloc linking the EU to the US and Canada within NATO is clearly evolving. But that doesn’t mean isolationism. Belgians still want to stay in NATO.” The alliance is increasingly perceived as a European collective security shield rather than a US-dominated instrument.

Overwhelming Support for European Military Autonomy

The most striking consensus to emerge from the survey is the demand for European strategic autonomy. Over 80% of respondents across all three regions and all political parties believe Europe must be fully militarily autonomous — a position that transcends the usual left-right political divisions.

“For Belgians, we are in an era of conflict,” Pilet told RTBF. “It doesn’t directly affect Belgium, but there is constantly a conflict in the world involving a major power.” He added that “a significant part of the population supports the idea that we should not cut defense budgets too much, that the EU must invest in defense policies.”

Economic and Diplomatic Implications

The survey also reveals strong support for economic countermeasures. Between 60-70% of Belgians support robust EU economic retaliation in response to US tariff increases. Nearly 90% of respondents across all regions and parties oppose US interference in Belgian internal affairs — a finding directly linked to the Ambassador White controversy.

As Stefaan Walgrave (UAntwerpen), co-author of the survey, told VRT NWS: “Belgians essentially go along with the narrative that we are in a conflict situation with the United States and we must strike back. We must not let ourselves be pushed around.”

War Scenarios: US as Potential Aggressor

When asked about the most likely future conflict scenarios, nearly four out of five Belgians identified a war started by the US against a non-NATO country as the most probable — reflecting the fact that US attacks on Iran had begun just before the survey was launched. Over half of respondents also considered a Chinese attack on Taiwan likely. In contrast, over 80% considered a direct military attack on Belgium unlikely.

Conjunctural or Permanent?

While the findings represent an unprecedented shift, researchers caution that the change may not be permanent. Pilet hypothesized that “there is a conjunctural effect related to the current presidency. I hypothesize that this is not a definitive turning point, provided that US foreign policy changes after Trump.”

However, the depth of the sentiment — with the US now perceived on par with Russia and China in terms of being an adversary — suggests that even a post-Trump normalization may not fully restore previous levels of trust. The survey’s detailed methodology notes that the sample, while not fully random, was weighted to be representative of Belgium’s voting-age population.

What to Watch For

The Belgian survey results raise critical questions for European policymakers. Will this public sentiment translate into concrete shifts in Belgian defense and foreign policy? How will the tension between distrust of the US and continued support for NATO membership be resolved? And what specific steps toward European military autonomy will Belgium advocate for at the EU level?

As the survey makes clear, Belgian public opinion has crossed a threshold. The question now is whether policymakers — in Brussels, Washington, and across European capitals — will follow.