California Governor Primary: Three Candidates Battle for Top Two Spots
California voters head to the polls on June 2 for a high-stakes gubernatorial primary that has narrowed to three leading contenders: Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Steve Hilton, and Democrat Tom Steyer. With incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom term-limited, the open race features 61 candidates on the ballot under California’s top-two primary system, where the two highest vote-getters — regardless of party — advance to the November general election.
Recent polls show a tight and volatile race. A Public Policy Institute of California survey released May 27 put Becerra at 23%, Hilton at 20%, and Steyer at 15%. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll from May 29 showed Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19%. An Emerson College Polling survey released May 30 had Becerra at 28%, Steyer at 22%, and Hilton at 21%. Roughly one in four voters remain undecided, adding significant uncertainty to the outcome.
The Three Frontrunners
Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services and former California Attorney General, has surged in recent weeks after rival Eric Swalwell withdrew from the race in April amid sexual assault allegations, which he denies. Becerra, who served 12 terms in Congress, has consolidated Democratic support by focusing on lowering the cost of healthcare, housing, and utilities, while positioning himself as a steady hand with decades of government experience. If elected, he would become California’s first elected Latino governor in more than a century.
Steve Hilton, a former Fox News contributor and senior adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron, is the Republican standard-bearer. Endorsed by President Donald Trump in April, Hilton has campaigned on a promise to “end one-party rule” in California and reverse state policies on energy and crime. Republicans have not won a statewide race in California since 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected. Hilton’s path to the general election appears solid, but winning in November would require overcoming the state’s Democratic registration advantage of roughly 47% to 25%.
Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmental activist and former presidential candidate, has poured more than $200 million of his own money into the race — a staggering sum that accounts for 64% of all ad spending in the primary. According to AdImpact, the race has become the most expensive gubernatorial primary in U.S. history at $315.8 million in ad spending and reservations. Steyer’s progressive platform includes eliminating corporate tax loopholes and aggressive climate action, but analysts warn that overexposure from nonstop advertising may be turning off voters.
Record Spending and Shifting Dynamics
The financial scale of this race is unprecedented. Steyer’s spending alone exceeds the combined totals of the 2018 and 2022 California gubernatorial primaries. Democratic candidates account for 99% of all ad spending, while Republicans account for just 1%. A group called “CA is Not for Sale, No on Steyer” has spent $30.9 million on ads attacking the billionaire, making it the second-largest advertiser in the race.
“I think Steyer has more than a shot of winning a spot,” Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., told USA Today. “I don’t think this race is over by any stretch.”
David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University, offered a contrasting view: “Steyer is nipping at their heels, but he might not get enough votes to push through.” McCuan described Becerra as “a slow-moving tortoise” and Steyer as “the twitchy hare” in the race.
Turnout Wildcard
Fewer than 40% of California’s 23 million registered voters are expected to participate, and shifting turnout patterns could dramatically alter the outcome. Democratic ballot returns are down compared to 2022 (44% vs. 53%), while Republican returns are up (35% vs. 26%), according to Political Data Inc.
“The California electorate has not embraced this race, so this could be a vote for the lesser of two evils,” Brian Sobel, a veteran political analyst, told USA Today. “This is a big field, and voters are not really thrilled with anybody.”
What’s at Stake
The winner will manage the world’s fourth-largest economy — a state of nearly 40 million people with a $4 trillion GDP — and will set policy on issues from climate change and housing to healthcare and immigration. The race carries national significance as a bellwether for Democratic strength in the post-2024 landscape and a potential preview of 2028 dynamics, with both Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris considered potential presidential contenders.
What to Watch
With primary day on June 2, the immediate question is which two candidates will advance. The most likely scenario per recent polling is Becerra and Hilton, setting up a classic Democrat-versus-Republican general election in a heavily Democratic state. However, if Steyer’s massive spending pushes him past Hilton, California could see an all-Democrat general election — a scenario that would trigger even more spending in the months ahead.
Analysts estimate approximately 15% of the vote is needed to secure one of the top two spots. With one in four voters still undecided, the race remains highly fluid as Californians prepare to cast their ballots.