Hospitals See Diseases Resurge as Vaccinations Decline

Hospitals across the United States are reporting a troubling resurgence of preventable diseases as childhood vaccination rates continue to fall below critical thresholds, raising alarms among infectious disease specialists who warn that decades of public health progress are unraveling.

According to The New York Times, the trend is driven by a confluence of factors: declining immunization coverage since the COVID-19 pandemic, rising vaccine exemptions, and a major federal overhaul of the childhood vaccine schedule in January 2026 that reduced the number of universally recommended vaccines.

A Perfect Storm of Declining Immunity

CDC data shows nationwide MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccination rates have dropped to just over 92%, below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity. In some states like Idaho, rates are under 80%. For the 2024-25 school year, non-medical exemptions reached an all-time high of 3.4% of kindergartners — approximately 138,000 children, according to Johns Hopkins IVAC.

“I believe we’ve passed an inflection point,” Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccine researcher at Baylor College of Medicine, told NPR. “We’ve already now started a pretty steep decline in vaccine acceptance in the United States.”

Measles: The Canary in the Coal Mine

The consequences have been stark. The Southwest United States experienced a massive measles outbreak beginning in January 2025, centered in Gaines County, Texas. By the end of 2025, the CDC confirmed 2,255 measles cases across 44 states and nearly 50 separate outbreaks, as documented by Wikipedia. Three people died — two children in Lubbock, Texas, and one adult in New Mexico — all unvaccinated.

Measles is often the first vaccine-preventable disease to resurge because it is extraordinarily contagious. Experts warn the U.S. is likely to lose its measles elimination status within the next year or two.

Whooping Cough Returns with a Vengeance

Pertussis, or whooping cough, has also made a deadly comeback. In 2025, there were nearly 29,000 cases — the highest since 2012 — and 16 related deaths. Three infants died in Kentucky and two in Louisiana, all unvaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins IVAC.

Hib: A Disease Doctors Hoped Never to See Again

Perhaps most alarming to infectious disease specialists are emerging cases of Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) — a bacterial infection that the vaccine had reduced by more than 99%, from 20,000 cases annually to fewer than 50.

USA Today reported several severe cases in unvaccinated children, including a 4-month-old who died in Panama City, Florida, and a 2-year-old who suffered brain abscesses and lasting neurological effects.

“This is not a disease you want to come back,” said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s Vaccine Education Center.

Dr. Mathuram Santosham of Johns Hopkins University, who helped pioneer the first Hib vaccines in the 1980s, called the situation “frightening, not only for Hib, but for other diseases.”

Policy Changes and Controversy

The resurgence comes amid significant policy shifts. In January 2026, following a Presidential Memorandum from President Trump, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Acting CDC Director Jim O’Neill adopted a revised childhood immunization schedule modeled partly on Denmark’s approach, as detailed by the CDC Newsroom. The new schedule categorizes vaccines into three tiers: recommended for all children, recommended for high-risk groups, and shared clinical decision-making.

“President Trump directed us to examine how other developed nations protect their children and to take action if they are doing better,” Secretary Kennedy said in the announcement. “After an exhaustive review of the evidence, we are aligning the U.S. childhood vaccine schedule with international consensus while strengthening transparency and informed consent.”

The scientific assessment that informed the decision found that the U.S. was a global outlier — recommending vaccines against 18 diseases compared to Denmark’s 10 — yet achieving lower vaccination rates. The new schedule keeps vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, polio, pertussis, tetanus, diphtheria, Hib, pneumococcal disease, HPV, and varicella in the universal recommendation category.

Critics, including the Infectious Diseases Society of America, argue that moving vaccines from universal to risk-based recommendations will lead to lower uptake among vulnerable populations, particularly in a country without universal healthcare. Writing in the IDSA Science Speaks Blog, public health analyst Cayman Doran warned that “declining vaccination coverage has national implications, but its effects are unevenly distributed across communities,” with rural areas and under-resourced communities facing the greatest barriers.

A Historic Reversal

The current situation represents a dramatic reversal of one of public health’s greatest success stories. Before the measles vaccine was introduced in 1963, the U.S. saw 3 to 4 million infections annually, with 400 to 500 deaths. The Hib vaccine reduced cases by more than 99%. Measles was declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000.

Now, experts fear those gains are slipping away. A Johns Hopkins study published in JAMA found that 78% of more than 2,000 U.S. counties reported declines in MMR vaccination rates between 2019 and 2024.

What Experts Fear Is Next

Infectious disease experts predict that if vaccination rates continue to fall, diseases like rubella or even polio could potentially return. The erosion of herd immunity puts immunocompromised individuals and infants too young to be vaccinated at greatest risk.

“So we’ve already now, you know, have maybe lost the battle on measles and pertussis, and the others will likely follow,” Dr. Hotez told NPR.

Dr. Phillip Huang, director of the Dallas County Health and Human Services, summed up the frustration of many public health officials: “It’s just crazy that we’re going backwards on these vaccine-preventable diseases.”

As hospitals across the country prepare for what may be a sustained increase in preventable diseases, the central question remains whether public health messaging can rebuild trust in vaccines given the current political environment — and how many more children will need to get sick before that trust is restored.