Santos Investigated for Insider Trading on Prediction Market

The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating former Congressman George Santos for alleged insider trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi, according to multiple reports. Santos is accused of placing bets that he would not attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February — while publicly stating he would attend — and profiting tens of thousands of dollars when his no-show caused betting odds to shift in his favor.

The Allegations

According to NPR, which first broke the story on June 2, Santos placed bets on Kalshi that he would not appear at Trump’s State of the Union address on February 24, 2026. A day before the speech, Santos posted a video on X saying, “I’ll be in the gallery” for the president’s address. The next evening, as Trump was speaking, Santos posted: “Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML.”

Kalshi detected the suspicious trades, froze Santos’ account, and referred the matter to both the CFTC and the DOJ, sources familiar with the investigation told ABC News. The trades allegedly generated tens of thousands of dollars in profits for Santos.

Santos’ Response

When contacted by NPR, Santos said the investigation was “news to me.” Asked whether he had a Kalshi account, he replied, “I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no.” Santos claimed to know Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, describing her as “a fellow Brazilian,” and said he would call her to clarify the situation. However, a person familiar with Kalshi’s investigation said Santos does not actually know Lara, and that Kalshi has attempted to interview Santos but he has dodged those requests.

On X, Santos appeared to dismiss the reports, writing: “I hate to disappoint but I don’t engage with rag reporting anymore… Business as usual on my end haters!” according to The Guardian.

A History of Deception

The investigation adds to the extraordinary legal saga of George Santos, whose political career was built on a web of fabrications. The former Republican congressman from New York’s 3rd district lied about graduating from Baruch College in the top 1% of his class, working at Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, his mother being in the South Tower on 9/11, and being Jewish with grandparents who escaped the Holocaust.

After a House Ethics Committee investigation detailed how he used campaign funds for personal purchases including travel, cosmetic treatment, and luxury goods, Santos was expelled from Congress in December 2023 — only the sixth sitting House member ever expelled. He pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft and was sentenced to 87 months in federal prison in April 2025. However, he served only about three to four months before President Trump commuted his sentence in October 2025.

Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny

The Santos case comes amid a broader crackdown on insider trading in prediction markets. In April 2026, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier was criminally charged for making over $400,000 betting on Polymarket about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, allegedly using classified information. In May 2026, a Google software engineer was charged by the DOJ for making over $1 million betting on search trends based on confidential company information on Polymarket.

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, has previously fined three congressional candidates for betting on their own races. The platform also appointed Donald Trump Jr. as a “strategic advisor,” adding a political dimension to the regulatory landscape.

What’s Next

The dual DOJ and CFTC investigation raises significant legal questions about whether an individual’s own actions can constitute material non-public information in the context of prediction markets. If prosecutors pursue charges, the case could establish precedent for how insider trading laws apply to public figures betting on events they can personally influence. Neither the CFTC nor the Justice Department has commented on the investigation, and it remains unclear whether criminal charges will be filed.