National Guard Has Little Effect on Violent Crime in D.C., Study Finds

The deployment of National Guard troops to Washington, D.C. — costing taxpayers approximately $1.5 million per day — has produced a 24% reduction in opportunistic property crime but has had no measurable effect on violent crime, according to a new study from the nonpartisan Niskanen Center. The findings raise fundamental questions about the effectiveness of military intervention in domestic law enforcement as the Trump administration prepares to double the Guard presence to 5,000 troops this summer.

Background: The Deployment

President Trump first deployed approximately 2,000 National Guard troops to D.C. in August 2025 as part of his “Safe and Beautiful Task Force,” an initiative aimed at reducing crime and beautifying the city. As of June 2026, there are roughly 2,500 to 2,800 Guard members on the ground from D.C. and about a dozen other states, all with Republican governors. Unlike in other cities where Trump deployed the Guard during his second term, the president has direct authority over the Guard in D.C. because it is a federal district.

Guard members do not have arrest powers but can detain individuals. They conduct “high visibility patrols” around federal property, residential areas, parks, and metro stations. A Congressional Budget Office assessment found the deployment costs roughly $1.5 million per day, and a Congressional report earlier this year put the total cost to taxpayers at $330 million.

What the Study Found

The Niskanen Center study, published May 28, used an event-study framework comparing crime deviations from baseline levels before and after the August 2025 deployment. Researchers found that the Guard’s arrival produced a sharp, persistent drop in property crime — particularly auto theft and vehicle break-ins — driven by the sudden visible presence of uniformed military personnel on the streets.

However, the study found no measurable effect on violent crime, including robberies and homicides. Violent crime in D.C. was already on a downward trend before the Guard arrived, driven by strategic shifts within the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) rather than the military deployment.

As NPR reported, the study’s authors noted that “the National Guard was deployed primarily in high-visibility public spaces, exactly the locations where opportunistic property crime tends to occur and where visible deterrence is most likely to be effective.” But they added that “a uniformed presence in tourist corridors and transit hubs is unlikely to interrupt a dispute between individuals with preexisting ties on their own turf. The Guard’s footprint was simply misaligned with the geography of violence.”

The Cost Question

The study highlighted a significant cost disparity. The daily cost per Guard member is approximately $607, compared to $384 per MPD officer — yet Guard members lack full police powers. The researchers argued that an equivalent investment in targeted, data-driven MPD deployment could produce social benefits “an order of magnitude larger.”

Richard Hahn, one of the study’s co-authors, told NPR: “I think on balance the National Guard’s deployment is not a failure, there is success in what they’ve done. But I guess the point that we try to make is: compared to what? You could get the same or better outcomes, possibly much better outcomes, for much cheaper, if you just were very thoughtful about policing.”

MPD’s Independent Progress

The study found that MPD had already been making significant strides before the Guard arrived. Between 2022 and 2025, the department shifted toward proactive, upstream enforcement — narcotics arrests rose approximately 150%, traffic stops increased 100%, and release violations and fugitive charges climbed about 50%. These changes occurred even as the sworn officer count fell to its lowest level in half a century, suggesting that police strategy matters more than raw headcount.

Crucially, the study found that MPD did not redeploy its officers in response to the Guard’s arrival. The two forces operated independently and in parallel.

White House Response

The White House dismissed the study’s findings. Spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement that the president’s “Safe and Beautiful Task Force and National Guard presence have driven down crime, beautified the city, and improved quality of life for countless individuals.” She told Military Times that “President Trump has transformed D.C. from a crime-ridden city into a safe and beautiful haven for residents and visitors alike.”

What’s Next

Despite the study’s findings, the administration is proceeding with plans to double the Guard presence to 5,000 troops this summer as part of a “summer surge” ahead of America’s 250th birthday celebrations. Assistant Attorney General Colin M. McDonald announced the surge, saying: “We are not satisfied. We are not content with good. We are coming for perfection.”

It remains unclear when the surge will begin or end, or whether the findings will influence the administration’s broader strategy. Trump has already replicated this model in Memphis and New Orleans and has indicated interest in expanding it further. The study provides robust evidence that when it comes to reducing violent crime, strategy and deployment matter far more than the sheer number of uniformed personnel on the streets.