George Santos Investigated for Prediction Market Trades After Making Violent Threat Against Reporter
Former U.S. Representative George Santos is under investigation by the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for alleged insider trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi, according to NPR. The probe centers on accusations that Santos publicly announced he would attend President Trump’s February State of the Union address while secretly betting on Kalshi that he would not attend, profiting tens of thousands of dollars when he failed to show up. Separately, Santos made a violent threat against the NPR reporter who broke the story and then lied about it.
The Alleged Scheme
On February 23, 2026, Santos posted a video on X saying he would attend Trump’s State of the Union address. Traders on Kalshi placed millions of dollars in bets on his attendance, with odds rising to roughly 75%. However, according to three people with direct knowledge of his trades, Santos had already placed bets on Kalshi that he would not attend. The next day, as Trump delivered his address, Santos posted: “Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML,” causing the odds to plummet.
Kalshi detected the suspicious trades, froze Santos’ account, and referred the matter to the CFTC and DOJ, which both opened investigations. When contacted by NPR, Santos said the investigation was “news to me” and refused to confirm or deny having a Kalshi account, saying, “I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no.” He later called the allegations “preposterous” on X and claimed his legal team was in contact with the DOJ.
Violent Threat Against Journalist
On June 2, NPR reporter Bobby Allyn, who broke the story, received a phone call from a blocked number. It was Santos, who was “boiling with rage” according to Allyn’s first-person account. During the call, Santos told Allyn: “This story is going to get you a gun in your face.” When Allyn asked what he meant, Santos replied, “You know what I mean.”
Santos then pre-emptively denied the threat via text, claiming he had said “it’d blow up in your face” instead. He later took to X to deny it publicly, writing: “I’ve interacted with hundreds of reporters in my life… not once was I ever threatening or aggressive… sassy? Sure but aggressive and threatening? NEVER!”
A Pattern of Deception
The investigation marks the latest chapter in Santos’ extraordinary downfall. Elected in 2022 as a Republican from New York’s 3rd district, his campaign was built on a series of fabricated claims about his background, including false assertions that he graduated from Baruch College in the top 1% of his class, worked at Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, and was Jewish with grandparents who escaped the Holocaust.
As Jonathan Entin, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University, told NPR: “Virtually everything that he put out about himself when he was running for office was manufactured. You had to wonder whether anything he ever said about himself had any basis in reality.”
Santos was indicted in May 2023, expelled from Congress in December 2023, and pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in August 2024. He was sentenced to 87 months in prison but served only four months before President Trump commuted his sentence in October 2025.
Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny
The Santos case comes amid a broader crackdown on insider trading in prediction markets. The Associated Press reported that Polymarket, a rival platform that had been paying Santos as an influencer, terminated its relationship with him after the revelations.
In recent months, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier was charged with using classified information to make over $400,000 betting on Polymarket about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. A Google employee was also charged for making over $1 million betting on search trends based on confidential company data.
CFTC Director of Enforcement David Miller has stated that insider trading laws apply to prediction markets and that the agency is pursuing violations “vigorously.” However, legal experts are divided on whether Santos’ actions constitute insider trading or market manipulation. Todd Phillips, director at Klaros Group, told the AP that what Santos is accused of “sounds a lot more like market manipulation than insider trading” since he wasn’t using stolen information — he was creating it through his own public statements.
What’s Next
The DOJ and CFTC investigations remain ongoing, and it is unclear whether Santos will face criminal charges. The case raises novel legal questions about whether someone can be found guilty of insider trading for trading on their own future actions. It also tests the Trump administration’s relationship with prediction markets, given that Donald Trump Jr. has invested in Polymarket and serves as a strategic advisor for Kalshi. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether law enforcement will investigate Santos’ threat against the journalist who exposed his alleged scheme.