Walloon Debt Debate: Fact-Checking the €820 Million Claim

A heated political dispute has erupted in Wallonia over who is responsible for the region’s mounting debt. The Socialist Party (PS) accuses the current Walloon government — a coalition of the liberal MR and centrist Les Engagés — of increasing the region’s debt by more than €820 million since taking office in July 2024. But as an in-depth fact-check by RTBF reveals, the truth is considerably more nuanced.

The Accusation

Christie Morreale, PS group leader in the Walloon Parliament and former Vice-President of Wallonia, made the claim on RTBF’s “QR le débat” program. “They have increased both the deficit and the debt of Wallonia by more than 820 million euros,” she declared, adding that this was equivalent to €500 per Walloon household. She further alleged the government committed “more than 500 million euros in errors in the budget.”

The PS’s calculation method draws on Court of Audits data: comparing the “net financing need” (solde net à financer) across years, the party found a deterioration of €338 million from 2023 to 2024 and €151 million from 2024 to 2025, totaling €489 million in additional deficit. By adding the €338 million deterioration that remains embedded in the 2025 debt stock, they arrive at approximately €830 million.

The Government’s Defense

The MR-led government does not deny that the deficit has grown — it acknowledges a deterioration of €577 million. But it attributes this to five key factors, many of which it says are inherited from the previous PS-led administration.

First, uncollected revenues of approximately €280 million, including €200 million from the Kyoto Fund that the federal government has not yet transferred to Wallonia, and lower personal income tax (IPP) receipts due to federal tax exemptions. Second, emergency decisions taken in December 2025 totaling €460 million, including €241 million for optimizing Recovery Plan credits. Third, and most significantly, €1.2 billion in unpaid invoices left by the previous government — Recovery Plan bills that came due after the new government took office.

“You know what share of invoices were left unpaid by the previous government under its recovery plan? In 2025, it’s 1.2 billion euros,” said François Desquesnes, Vice-President of the Walloon Government (Les Engagés), on the same RTBF program.

The government also points to an overestimation of under-utilized credits (98.25% execution rate versus a planned under-utilization of €609 million) and variable transition corrections as contributing factors.

What the Experts Say

Sébastien Thonet, a public finance researcher at UNamur, provides crucial context. “The PS note mixes budget and accounting concepts,” he told RTBF, noting that the “net financing need” is a budget forecast, not an accounting reality.

However, using data from the National Accounts Institute, Thonet found that if the 2023 financing balance of -€2.036 billion had been maintained through 2025, the debt would be approximately €817 million lower — remarkably close to the PS claim. “We would then be close to the PS assertion,” he said.

On political responsibility, Thonet is measured: “It is delicate to attribute budgetary responsibility to a majority for 2024, given that it was an election year.” He notes that “part of the degradation can indeed be attributed to the launch of the Walloon Recovery Plan, many files of which reached maturity in 2025,” while adding that “the government certainly lacked prudence in setting an inadequate level of credit under-utilizations.”

The Broader Picture

Wallonia’s fiscal challenges extend far beyond this political blame game. According to the Court of Audits, Walloon direct debt is projected to reach €32.8 billion by the end of 2026 — a nearly 60% increase over five years — and could climb to €37.6 billion by 2029. The Court has criticized “poorly calibrated and unjust tax reforms,” while opposition parties including the PS, PTB, and Ecolo have denounced a lack of budget transparency.

Crucially, both the PS and MR share responsibility for the current situation. The PS governed with MR as a coalition partner from 2019 to 2024, and the MR held key portfolios — including Economy under Willy Borsus and Budget under Adrien Dolimont — when the Walloon Recovery Plan was adopted in 2021-2022. The PS left office with unpaid invoices; the current government faces structural revenue shortfalls and the maturation costs of that same Recovery Plan.

What to Watch For

Wallonia’s debt trajectory remains deeply concerning regardless of who bears political responsibility. Minister-President Adrien Dolimont (MR) has already announced the need for €2 billion in additional savings, and the region must comply with EU fiscal rules under the Stability and Growth Pact. The debate over who caused the current mess may dominate headlines, but the more pressing question is how Wallonia will dig itself out of a hole that, by any measure, is getting deeper.

As Thonet concluded: both sides have legitimate arguments, but the structural challenges facing Wallonia’s public finances will outlast any single government or legislature.