Belgian Supermarket Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2021
Supermarket inflation in Belgium fell to 0.27% in May 2026, the lowest level since December 2021, according to consumer organization Testaankoop. The figure marks a sharp decline from 1.18% in April and represents the first time in more than four years that grocery price growth has dipped below 1%.
While the slowdown offers some relief to households that have endured years of double-digit food inflation, Testaankoop warns that the reprieve may be short-lived. Rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and disruptions to Red Sea shipping routes threaten to push costs back up in the months ahead.
Context: A Plateau, Not a Price Drop
The 0.27% figure means that groceries were just 0.27% more expensive in May 2026 than they were a year earlier. This does not mean prices are falling — rather, they are rising at a much slower pace than the dramatic spikes seen since 2022.
“The inflation rate is really very low,” said Laura Clays, spokesperson for Testaankoop, in an interview with VRT NWS. “For the first time since December 2021, when prices started to rise sharply, the inflation rate is again below 1 percent.”
Testaankoop tracks prices of over 3,000 products across six major supermarket chains: Colruyt, Albert Heijn, Delhaize, Lidl, Aldi, and Carrefour. The organization’s monthly index provides a targeted measure of grocery inflation that often exceeds broader national CPI figures due to the impact of energy costs on food production and transport.
Winners and Losers in the Shopping Basket
The headline figure masks significant variation across product categories. While some items have become cheaper thanks to good harvests, others continue to see sharp price increases.
Products that have become more expensive (year-on-year):
- Lamb meat: +18%
- Coffee pads: +11%
- Blueberries: +10%
- Cod: +10%
- Beef steak: +8%
- Ground coffee: +7%
- Minced beef (americain): +7%
- Lemons: +6%
- Chocolate: +5%
- Beer: +4%
Products that have become cheaper:
- Potatoes: -11%
- Carrots: -10%
- Grapes: -6%
- Iceberg lettuce: -6%
- Onions: -3%
Despite the welcome drop in potato prices, Clays cautioned that prices remain historically elevated. “Many people are happy with that price drop, but if you compare the price of a kilo of potatoes with that of January 2022, you see that a kilo of potatoes has become no less than 37 percent more expensive,” she told VRT NWS.
Why Prices Remain High
The root causes of elevated food prices trace back to two major geopolitical shocks. The war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, triggered energy price spikes and disrupted grain and sunflower oil exports, sending production and transport costs soaring. Supermarket inflation peaked at over 20% during 2022 and 2023.
More recently, the escalation of the Middle East conflict since October 2023 has put renewed upward pressure on energy prices. The Red Sea shipping crisis has forced vessels to take longer routes, increasing transport costs for goods traded between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
“We fear that prices will rise again due to the war in the Middle East,” Clays said. The experience of the Ukraine war demonstrated that energy price increases typically feed into supermarket prices within a matter of months.
Climate factors have also played a role. El Niño-related extreme weather in coffee-producing countries such as Vietnam and Brazil has driven up coffee prices, while poor cocoa harvests in West Africa have pushed chocolate costs higher.
What This Means for Consumers
Testaankoop emphasized that food remains much more expensive than four to five years ago. The cumulative price increase since January 2022 is approximately 26% on average across supermarket products.
“Falling inflation may sound good, but many families will not immediately feel the positive effects in their usual expenses,” the organization said in a press release.
To help consumers manage their budgets, Testaankoop advises shoppers to compare prices per unit (per kilo or liter) rather than per package. Store brand products often offer equivalent quality to major international brands at lower prices, and promotions on branded items may still be more expensive per unit than standard store brand alternatives.
Outlook
The key question facing Belgian consumers is whether the current low inflation represents a genuine turning point or merely a temporary plateau. Testaankoop’s warning suggests the latter: as long as geopolitical tensions persist and energy costs remain elevated, the risk of renewed price increases looms large.
For now, households can take some comfort in the fact that grocery bills are no longer rising at the punishing rates seen in recent years. But with structural pressures still in place, vigilance remains the watchword.