Spencer Pratt’s LA Mayoral Lead Narrows as Late Ballots Shift Race
Reality TV star Spencer Pratt’s independent bid to secure the second runoff spot in the Los Angeles mayoral race is hanging by a thread as late-tallied ballots consistently favor his Democratic opponent, City Councilmember Nithya Raman. With incumbent Mayor Karen Bass already projected to advance to the November runoff, the race for second place has narrowed to just over 7,000 votes — roughly 1% of the vote — with hundreds of thousands of ballots still outstanding.
The State of the Race
As of the latest count on June 7, Bass leads with 235,180 votes (34.8%), followed by Pratt with 184,596 votes (27.3%) and Raman with 177,102 votes (26.2%), according to Fox News. The margin between Pratt and Raman now stands at approximately 7,494 votes, a dramatic collapse from the roughly 37,000-vote lead Pratt held just days earlier.
Approximately 463,180 ballots remain to be counted countywide, including roughly 450,000 vote-by-mail ballots, 11,340 conditional voter registration ballots, and 1,840 provisional ballots. Under California’s top-two primary system, if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election. With Bass already assured a spot, the battle is for the second runoff slot.
The ‘Blue Shift’ Phenomenon
The late-counted ballots favoring Raman reflect a well-documented pattern in American elections known as the “blue shift” — the tendency for mail-in ballots, which are typically counted later, to skew more Democratic than Election Day votes. This occurs because Democratic voters are statistically more likely to vote by mail and return ballots closer to the deadline, while Republicans are more likely to vote in person or return mail ballots early.
As the Associated Press has noted, California’s slow count is a predictable outcome of its election laws — universal mail-in ballots, signature verification requirements, and a seven-day postmark window for ballots to arrive after Election Day. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber has defended the process, stating that “accuracy comes before speed.”
National Attention and Allegations
The narrowing race has drawn attention from the highest levels of government. President Donald Trump has posted on social media alleging irregularities, writing that “the Dumocrats are at it again” and claiming the election is being “rigged.” Elon Musk amplified claims of voter fraud, stating on X that “when you combine no ID and mail-in voting, fraud is de facto legalized.”
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy criticized California Governor Gavin Newsom’s election laws on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” arguing that the state’s system has eroded public confidence. “When Gavin Newsom was elected governor of California, you knew who was elected in a day to two days,” McCarthy said. “Now it takes more than weeks, almost a month.”
The Structural Explanation
Election experts across the political spectrum have pushed back against fraud allegations, pointing to structural factors rather than malfeasance. UCLA Law Professor Rick Hasen noted that “Democrats have been holding on to their ballots,” compounding the delay. Former Republican election official Stephen Richer of Maricopa County, Arizona, wrote on X: “We might not like how California administers its elections (and I don’t). But that doesn’t make it fraud.”
Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif., offered a simple mathematical rebuttal: Los Angeles County has approximately 1,224,737 registered Democrats versus 326,292 registered Republicans — a nearly 4:1 ratio that naturally favors Democratic candidates in late-counted mail ballots.
What Happens Next
Ballots postmarked by Election Day (June 2) must be received by June 9 to be counted. California recently passed a law requiring election results to be certified within 13 days of the election, down from the previous 30-day window. Results must be certified by July 10.
If Raman overtakes Pratt, the November runoff will be between two Democrats — Bass and Raman — effectively shutting out Republican and independent voters from having a candidate in the general election. The outcome also carries broader implications: a pending Supreme Court decision in Watson v. RNC, expected by the end of June, could fundamentally alter California’s ballot counting rules by determining whether counting mail ballots received after Election Day violates federal law.
With the trend strongly favoring Raman and hundreds of thousands of ballots still outstanding, Pratt’s path to the runoff appears increasingly uncertain. The final outcome will not only determine who faces Bass in November but will also serve as a flashpoint in the ongoing national debate over election integrity and California’s unique voting system.