Southern China Braces for Extreme Rainstorms as Heavy Rainfall Intensifies

Southern China is bracing for a second consecutive day of extreme weather as heavy rainfall shifts southward, bringing forecasts of localized extreme rainstorms with up to 300mm of precipitation in 24 hours. The severe weather coincides with the second day of the national college entrance exam, the Gaokao, affecting millions of students across the region.

Heavy Rain Belt Shifts South

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, the heavy rain belt has narrowed and shifted southward as of June 8, primarily impacting Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Taiwan Island. The observatory maintained its orange rainstorm warning on Monday morning, warning that southern coastal Guangdong and southern Taiwan could see extreme rainstorms with 250-300mm of rainfall within 24 hours.

This marks the second consecutive round of heavy rainfall affecting southern China. The first round, which began on June 2, impacted Southwest China, Jiangnan, and western South China. The second round, which started on June 5, has been more intense, with overlapping rainfall zones in Guizhou, Hunan, Guangxi, and Guangdong significantly raising the risk of cumulative precipitation disasters.

Xinhua News reported that the rain will continue to weaken and shrink to southeastern coastal areas by June 9, before decreasing significantly after June 10. The China Weather Network noted that temperatures in Chongqing, Guizhou, and Hunan have dropped to around 20°C due to the cold air and rainfall, but are expected to rise above 30°C again after mid-week.

Multiple Emergency Responses Activated

Chinese authorities have mobilized a multi-agency emergency response as the rainfall threatens to trigger secondary disasters. The China Meteorological Administration upgraded its emergency response to Level III for severe weather on June 7, while the Ministry of Water Resources activated a Level IV flood defense emergency response for six provinces including Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Guizhou.

According to People’s Daily, the Ministry of Water Resources issued a “one province one notice” to 10 provinces listing at-risk counties, reservoirs, and flash flood zones, and sent a working group to Hunan to assist with flood defense efforts. The National Flood Control Headquarters activated a Level IV flood control response for Guangxi, maintaining existing responses for Chongqing and Guizhou, and dispatched a working group to Chongqing for urban waterlogging and geological disaster response.

The Guangdong Provincial Hydrology Bureau activated its own Level IV flood control hydrological emergency response on the evening of June 7, urging the public to monitor real-time warnings via the “Guangdong Hydrology” WeChat public account.

Warnings and Secondary Disaster Risks

A cascade of warnings has been issued across the affected regions. The Ministry of Natural Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued an orange geological disaster meteorological risk warning, while the Ministry of Water Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a red flash flood meteorological warning — the highest alert level. Waterlogging risk alerts and small-to-medium river flood warnings are also active.

Hydrology experts have warned that the current “Dragon Boat Water” (龙舟水) flood season, which typically runs from late May to mid-June, brings sudden and frequent rainfall. The overlapping rainfall zones from two consecutive weather systems have saturated soils, dramatically increasing the risk of flash floods, landslides, and urban waterlogging.

According to the Shenzhen Special Zone Daily, hydrology experts emphasized that the public should promptly monitor warning information issued by local hydrological departments and prepare corresponding defenses in advance. The Ministry of Water Resources has also issued warnings for potential flooding in small-to-medium rivers, including the Qujiang River in Sichuan, the Jialing River in Chongqing, and the Wujiang River in Guizhou, among others.

Analysis and Broader Context

While individual weather events cannot be directly attributed to climate change, the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events in southern China is consistent with climate model projections for a warming world. The current event’s intensity — 250-300mm in 24 hours in localized areas — is significant but not unprecedented for the region during the Dragon Boat Water season.

This event also tests the capacity of urban drainage systems, flood control infrastructure, and emergency response mechanisms in China’s most economically vital southern provinces. The multi-agency coordination demonstrated by the China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Water Resources, and National Flood Control Headquarters reflects China’s evolving approach to disaster risk communication and management.

Gaokao Disruption Concerns

The heavy rainfall poses significant challenges for the 2026 Gaokao, being held from June 7-9. Guangdong Province alone has 782,200 examinees across 608 exam venues and 27,700 exam rooms, staffed by approximately 100,000 exam personnel. In Guangzhou, around 69,000 students are sitting the exam across 72 venues.

Authorities have implemented special measures including emergency traffic management, temporary ID card services at exam venues, and hydrological monitoring subscriptions for parents. The China Weather Network advised examinees and parents to carry umbrellas and arrange travel times appropriately to avoid weather-related disruptions.

Outlook

Rainfall is expected to weaken and shrink to southeastern coastal areas by June 9, with significant improvement forecast after June 10. However, the cumulative precipitation from the two rounds of rainfall raises concerns about flooding in the days ahead. Temperatures across southern China are expected to rebound above 30°C later in the week as the rain belt dissipates.

Looking ahead, several key questions remain: whether the rainfall will trigger major flooding events comparable to previous severe seasons in 2020 and 2022; how the remainder of the Dragon Boat Water season will develop; and whether climate adaptation measures in southern Chinese cities will prove adequate for this level of rainfall intensity. For now, authorities remain on high alert, with millions of students and families hoping for calmer weather as the Gaokao concludes on Tuesday.