MR and Les Engagés Face Voter Backlash Two Years On

June 9, 2026, marks exactly two years since Belgium’s federal elections delivered a historic victory for the Reformist Movement (MR) and Les Engagés in French-speaking Belgium. But the anniversary brings little cause for celebration. According to the National Survey 2026 conducted by ULB and the University of Antwerp for RTBF, the MR has fallen from 28.2% to just 20% in Wallonia — an 8-point drop — while losing a third of its voters in Brussels. Les Engagés appear stable at 19.3%, but analysts warn this is an optical illusion masking deeper fragility.

A Dramatic Reversal of Fortunes

The 2024 elections were transformative for French-speaking Belgium. The MR surged to 28.2% in Wallonia, benefiting from transfers from PS voters, right-wing parties, and former abstentionists. Les Engagés staged a spectacular “remontada” (comeback), rising from electoral disaster as the former CDH to 20%, largely capitalizing on Ecolo’s collapse from 18.5% to 6.8%. One in two voters in southern Belgium changed parties — a record level of volatility.

Two years on, the tide has turned. The National Survey 2026 reveals that the PS has reclaimed the lead in Wallonia with 24.9% (up from 22% in 2024), while the PTB has surged to 18.6% in Wallonia and become the largest party in Brussels with 24.4%. The MR, which won 21.5% in Brussels in 2024, has plummeted to just 14.2%.

Voter Migration: The Great Unraveling

The voter flow analysis reveals a complex picture of political realignment. According to RTBF’s detailed breakdown, the most significant movement is from MR to Les Engagés, involving 3% of all respondents. Another 2.7% of MR voters are moving to abstention or indecision. The MR is also losing 1.5% of voters to the PTB — a surprising shift given their ideological differences.

Political scientist Jean-Benoît Pilet of ULB described the situation as “a trend settling in, not just a glitch in the matrix,” as reported by La Libre Belgique. He notes that Les Engagés’ apparent stability is a “trompe-l’œil” (optical illusion): they are losing voters to the PS and PTB but compensating by attracting disgruntled MR defectors.

Why the Right is Losing Ground

Several interconnected factors explain the decline. The core campaign promise of MR and Les Engagés was a rebalancing between workers and non-workers, with tax cuts for the employed. While reforms are being implemented — limiting unemployment benefits, expanding flexi-jobs, restricting night work — the tangible benefits for workers’ paychecks have not yet materialized.

Budgetary pressures have compounded the problem. The Court of Auditors criticized the government’s optimistic “effets retour” (return effects) projections as “largely overestimated.” Increased defense spending due to NATO commitments and geopolitical tensions, combined with the cost of reduced registration duties in Wallonia, have worsened the fiscal outlook. With the budget deficit constraining further tax cuts, the government’s room for maneuver is limited.

A Cluster17 poll for RTL Info found that apart from MR voters, most French-speaking Belgians believe the government’s pension reform is heading in the wrong direction — 57% of respondents said no, compared to 35% who said yes.

The Left’s Resurgence

The beneficiaries of the right’s decline are the PS and PTB. The PS has become the leading party in Wallonia with 24.9%, while the PTB has surged dramatically. The National Survey shows that the PTB is increasingly seen as the party that will reduce taxes and increase purchasing power — a perception shift that has cost MR 1.5% of its voters to the far-left party.

Ecolo, meanwhile, continues to languish at around 6.8%, having lost most of its 2024 voters to Les Engagés, the PS, and the PTB. As the survey analysts note, “Only Ecolo hardly knows any movements. The party seems to have retreated to its loyal base electorate.”

What Lies Ahead

The MR faces the most precarious position, with the lowest reserve of potential voters of any major party — just 12.3% in Wallonia, compared to 18.4% for Les Engagés, 16.7% for the PS, and 15% for the PTB. With three years remaining before the next elections, there is time for recovery, but the budget deficit severely constrains the tax-cutting agenda that was central to the MR’s appeal.

For Les Engagés, their dependence on MR defectors makes them vulnerable. If the MR stabilizes, Les Engagés could see their support evaporate. The party’s positioning at center-right is still being defined, and they dominate no single policy theme in public perception.

The divergence between left-leaning Wallonia and Brussels and the stable right-leaning Flanders could create tensions within the federal “Arizona” coalition, where MR and Les Engagés govern alongside N-VA, CD&V, and Vooruit. As Bertrand Henne of RTBF put it: “It’s an anniversary. Yet it’s not certain that the two big parties that won want to spin the napkins and blow out the candles.”

The political landscape of French-speaking Belgium remains febrile. The record volatility observed in 2024 is still very much alive, and the recomposition of both the right and the left is far from complete.