Global Conflicts at Highest Level Since World War II

Global armed conflicts reached levels not seen since World War II in 2025, with 65 active conflicts recorded and approximately 244,600 fatalities — the deadliest year since the 1994 Rwandan genocide, according to new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) at Uppsala University.

The annual analysis, published in the Journal of Peace Research, documents a dramatic escalation in interstate warfare. Direct conflicts between sovereign states doubled for the second consecutive year, rising from just 2 in 2023 to 8 in 2025 — the highest number since the UCDP began tracking data in 1946.

A Surge in State-on-State Warfare

For decades following World War II, wars fought directly between nations were statistically rare, with most global violence taking the form of internal civil wars or insurgencies. That pattern has now reversed sharply.

“We are seeing a clear increase in conflicts between states. For a long time, interstate wars were relatively rare, but developments in recent years point to growing international tensions and a changing global security order,” said Shawn Davies, a senior analyst at UCDP.

The eight interstate conflicts recorded in 2025 include the wars between Russia and Ukraine, Iran and Israel, India and Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, Israel’s conflicts in Syria and Yemen, a border conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the U.S./U.K. campaign against Yemen’s Houthis in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Record Fatalities and Violence Against Civilians

The human toll of these conflicts is staggering. Of the 65 active armed conflicts, 13 reached the threshold of “war” — defined as over 1,000 battle-related deaths in a calendar year — the highest number since 1992. Total fatalities rose sharply from approximately 187,000 in 2024 to 244,600 in 2025.

The Russia-Ukraine war remains the deadliest interstate conflict, accounting for 62% of all battle-related deaths, with 77,700 Russian and 14,000 Ukrainian casualties in 2025 alone. Researchers noted that Russian battlefield losses have increased while Ukrainian losses have remained relatively stable. The Israel-Hamas war was the second-deadliest state-based conflict with 14,400 fatalities, though this represented a decrease from the previous year due to ceasefire agreements. Sudan ranked third among state-based conflicts with 12,200 battle deaths.

Perhaps most alarming is the surge in one-sided violence targeting civilians. According to NPR’s interview with UCDP analyst Therése Pettersson, approximately 76,500 civilians were killed in deliberate attacks globally — the highest level since the Rwandan genocide. Sudan’s Darfur region was the primary driver, with massacres following the capture of El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

“It is not only a story of more conflicts, but also of extremely high levels of lethal violence. Most notably, we see a dramatic increase in violence directed against civilians, particularly in Sudan,” said Therése Pettersson, senior analyst and project manager at UCDP.

Interestingly, the data reveals a counter-trend: non-state violence — such as cartel clashes in Mexico and sectarian fighting — dropped to its lowest levels since 2013, with approximately 14,500 deaths. This decline, however, is overshadowed by the dramatic increase in state-based conflicts.

A Changing Global Order

The study places these trends within a broader geopolitical context, noting that the post-World War II international order — often called the Pax Americana — may be unraveling. The UCDP report explicitly references the U.S. 2025 National Security Strategy, which the researchers describe as “turning against the world order it built.”

“The extremely high number of conflicts and wars recorded in 2025, particularly the record number of interstate conflicts, lends credence to the growing number of voices arguing that we are witnessing the end of Pax Americana and the liberal world order,” the study states.

However, Pettersson cautioned against attributing the spike to any single administration or policy. “Our data does not allow us to establish a direct causal link between specific U.S. policy changes and the increase in conflicts recorded in 2025,” she told NPR. “What the data shows is that interstate conflicts have increased sharply over the past decade and reached their highest level since World War II. This trend predates the current U.S. administration and cannot be explained by any single policy decision or political leader.”

What to Watch For

The researchers warn that 2026 is unlikely to bring relief. Data from the first half of the year already suggests the upward trend in global conflicts is continuing. As Open Access Government reports, the comprehensive dataset indicates that while localized factional violence is receding slightly, the global geopolitical arena is becoming significantly more hostile as state-driven military engagements continue to break historical precedents.

The findings raise urgent questions about the capacity of international institutions — including the United Nations and regional security organizations — to address the surge in state-on-state warfare. Whether diplomatic frameworks designed after World War II can adapt to the current security landscape remains an open question, as does the trajectory of a world that may be witnessing the end of the liberal international order that defined global relations for nearly eight decades.