U.S.-Iran Talks Stalled as Both Sides Demand Victory

WASHINGTON — The central challenge in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations is no longer technical but political: both Washington and Tehran insist on being able to claim victory in any potential deal, a dynamic that is vexing mediators and complicating efforts to end a conflict that has raged since February 28, according to The New York Times.

President Donald Trump needs to demonstrate that his military campaign against Iran achieved its goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Tehran, while Iran’s leadership must show that it did not capitulate to American pressure. These competing demands have created what analysts describe as a nearly intractable deadlock.

The Core Obstacle: Political Survival

The “victory problem” reflects deep structural pressures on both sides. For Trump, who launched a war explicitly to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, any deal that appears to let Iran retain enrichment capabilities could be framed as a failure. He faces pressure from Republican hawks who argue any compromise is too lenient, and midterm elections in November 2026 add urgency to demonstrate success.

For Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) views the war as existential. The IRGC has closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping — a waterway carrying roughly 25% of global oil trade — and sees Iran’s nuclear program and control of the strait as core strategic assets essential to regime survival. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who assumed power after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war, must establish his legitimacy.

“Both believe time is on their side and they have the upper hand, and that perception is precisely what is making a deal impossible,” Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group told Reuters, as cited in the research.

A Conflict Born from Failed Diplomacy

The current war began on February 28, 2026, when the U.S. and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran. This followed the collapse of five rounds of nuclear negotiations in April and May 2025 and the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran in June 2025.

According to Al Jazeera, the conflict has exacted a devastating toll. As of March 25, 1,500 people had been killed in Iran alone and 18,551 injured, according to Iranian health ministry figures. In Israel, Iranian strikes during the Twelve-Day War killed at least 28 people and wounded over 3,000. Oil prices soared above $100 per barrel from a pre-war Brent crude price of about $65.

Iran’s IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the strikes began, allowing only approved ships — mainly Indian, Pakistani, and Chinese-flagged vessels — to pass. The near-closure has disrupted global energy supplies and sent shockwaves through world markets.

The Negotiating Positions

The U.S. has sent a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran via Pakistan, according to Al Jazeera’s reporting. Key U.S. demands include the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow; a permanent commitment from Iran to never develop nuclear weapons; the handover of its stockpile of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); limits on Iran’s missile program; and the unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran, however, has its own conditions. President Masoud Pezeshkian laid out Iranian terms on March 11, calling for recognition of Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations for war damage, and firm international guarantees against future aggression. Iran also seeks the lifting of all sanctions and access to approximately $30 billion in frozen assets.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters: “We fight, we die, but we don’t accept humiliation. Surrender is fundamentally incompatible with Iran’s identity.”

Expert Skepticism Runs Deep

Former State Department Iran official Alan Eyre offered a blunt assessment: “These two sides will never reach a deal. Trump doesn’t want to just win, he wants to humiliate Iran and be seen as having crushed Iran.”

Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department arms control official, told the New York Times: “In reality, no conceivable negotiated outcome can guarantee that Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons.”

Danny Citrinowicz of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies noted the strategic failure of the military campaign: “We didn’t topple the regime — we have a more radicalised one. We didn’t end Iran’s missile capacity. And they still have the uranium.”

Iran is thought to have had about 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% purity — a short process away from weapons-grade 90%.

A Fragile Path Forward

Despite the deep divisions, Al Jazeera reported on June 9 that Trump said he is in the “final throes of what will be a very, very good deal.” He told reporters that the Strait of Hormuz would open “immediately upon signing,” which he said could happen in two or three days.

However, the path to any agreement remains fraught. Israel launched new strikes on southern Lebanon on June 9, complicating peace talks. Iran has made clear that any deal with the U.S. must include an end to fighting in Lebanon. Trump reportedly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “You better be careful or you will be on your own very soon.”

Pakistan has been the primary mediator, delivering the U.S. 15-point plan to Iran. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye have also pressed for peace talks. However, Iran has consistently denied holding direct talks with the U.S., accusing Washington of “negotiating with itself.”

What to Watch For

Several questions remain unanswered. Can a deal be reached before the U.S. midterm elections in November? Will Israel accept any agreement, given Netanyahu’s long-standing opposition to negotiations? Can the IRGC and Pezeshkian’s government present a unified position amid internal divisions between hardliners and reformists?

Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. official and Middle East negotiator, warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz without a political settlement would require “a prolonged American occupation with ground forces of Iranian territory” — a prospect few in Washington are willing to contemplate.

As the world watches, the fundamental challenge remains: crafting an agreement that allows both sides to declare success. For mediators, that task has never seemed more difficult.