EU Could End Foreign Gas Dependence by 2040, Report Finds

The European Union could eliminate its dependence on foreign gas imports by 2040 through a rapid acceleration of electrification, renewable energy deployment, and energy efficiency measures, according to a new analysis by the pan-European think tank Strategic Perspectives, conducted in partnership with the energy consultancy Artelys. The finding carries significant implications for Europe’s energy security, industrial competitiveness, and geopolitical posture.

The report, titled “Boosting Electrification in Europe,” concludes that electrification of heating, transport, and industry could reduce the EU’s gas consumption by 70% by 2040, shrinking gas to just 7% of the European energy mix. The remaining gas needs could be met entirely by reliable regional suppliers — Norway, the United Kingdom, and EU domestic production — making the bloc truly independent of non-European gas imports for the first time in decades.

The Scale of Europe’s Energy Vulnerability

The European Union remains one of the most energy-dependent economies in the world. In 2023, 58% of EU energy was imported, according to Eurostat data. Between 2021 and 2024, the bloc spent approximately €1.8 trillion on oil, gas, and coal imports. Since the escalation of the war in the Middle East, the EU has spent an additional €35 billion on energy imports without receiving a single additional unit of energy, underscoring the price volatility risk inherent in fossil fuel dependence.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a major shift in gas trade patterns. The EU rapidly reduced Russian gas imports under the REPowerEU plan but replaced them largely with U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). U.S. LNG’s share of EU gas imports grew from just 6% in 2021 to 27% in 2025, and could reach 40% by 2030. This shifted supplier concentration from Russia to the United States but did not end dependence itself — it merely swapped one vulnerability for another.

The Electrification Pathway

Strategic Perspectives argues that electrification is the EU’s only credible exit from fossil fuel dependence at scale. Over the past decade, the share of electricity in the EU’s final energy consumption has stagnated at around 23%, leaving vast potential untapped. The analysis shows that by 2040, the EU could electrify roughly half of its economy, cutting fossil fuel dependence by two-thirds and delivering net savings of €29 billion per year through lower fuel imports and system costs.

“The EU cannot control global fossil fuel markets, but can reduce its exposure to them,” the think tank wrote in a May 2026 policy brief. “Electrification is the only domestic, scalable and structural lever to permanently reduce fossil fuel dependence while strengthening competitiveness, resilience and energy security.”

Achieving this vision would require deploying approximately 80 GW of renewables per year through 2040 — close to the more than 70 GW already installed in 2025. Key technologies with high potential include heat pumps for buildings and industry, electric vehicles, and low-carbon steel production.

A Credible Gas Endgame

In a companion analysis published in February 2026, Strategic Perspectives detailed how the EU could manage its residual gas needs. As gas demand falls to around 30% of today’s level, the Union could progressively unwind its most fragile supply relationships: ending Russian fossil fuel imports, allowing long-term LNG contracts to expire, and phasing out pipeline gas from Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Libya.

By 2040, residual gas needs could be met through three reliable regional sources: Norway (53%), EU domestic production (35%), and the United Kingdom (12%). The analysis, which was quantified by Artelys, found that in an ambitious electrification scenario, the savings achieved through reduced fossil fuel imports and associated emissions outweigh the investment needs in technologies and the electricity system.

“The strategic choice is therefore straightforward: either align demand reduction, capital allocation and partnerships through electrification, or allow legacy gas investments to dictate Europe’s energy exposure well into the 2030s,” Strategic Perspectives warned.

Policy Implications and the Road Ahead

The report is timed to influence a pivotal moment in EU energy policy. June 2026 is expected to see the European Commission publish both its Electrification Action Plan and its Energy Security Framework. In April 2026, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the Electrification Action Plan would include an “ambitious electrification target,” marking an important shift in the EU’s approach.

Strategic Perspectives is calling for a binding electrification target of at least 50% by 2040, with indicative milestones of 32% by 2030 and 40% by 2035. The think tank argues this target should be anchored within the Energy Security Framework as a core security instrument and enshrined in legislation before the 2027 electoral cycle.

Challenges and Caveats

While the analysis offers a compelling pathway, significant challenges remain. Achieving 80 GW of new renewable capacity per year requires permitting reform, grid expansion, and sustained public acceptance. Electrification of industrial processes — particularly steel production — faces technological and cost barriers. Norway’s gas output is expected to decline over time, potentially limiting its role as an anchor supplier. And the political feasibility of binding national electrification targets across 27 member states with vastly different energy profiles remains an open question.

Moreover, the analysis comes from a think tank that advocates for climate action, which may introduce a pro-electrification bias. Nevertheless, the technical modeling by Artelys, a recognized energy consultancy, lends credibility to the core findings.

What to Watch For

All eyes are now on Brussels, where the European Commission is expected to release its Electrification Action Plan and Energy Security Framework in the coming weeks. The decisions made there will determine whether the EU seizes what Strategic Perspectives calls a “credible gas endgame” — or allows legacy investments to lock in fossil fuel dependence for another decade.

For Belgium, a country with significant gas infrastructure and a strategic position in European energy transit, the implications are particularly acute. The path to energy independence runs through electrification — and the clock is ticking.