Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecast Across China
China’s National Meteorological Centre has issued a weather bulletin forecasting heavy rainfall across southern China from June 12 to 14, while northern and northeastern regions — including Beijing and Tianjin — can expect frequent thunderstorms and showers over the coming days, according to the National Meteorological Centre.
The forecast, published on June 11 at 08:00 Beijing time, warns that the incoming weather coincides with the seasonal “Dragon Boat Water” (龙舟水) pattern, which typically brings intense precipitation to southern China during the Dragon Boat Festival period.
Current Conditions and Immediate Forecast
Heavy rain has already been affecting parts of the country. According to China News Service, western and southern Yunnan, along with Taiwan Island, experienced heavy to extreme rainfall over the past 24 hours, with some areas recording downpours of 100 to 150 millimeters. Scattered rain was reported across Northeast China, North China, and the Huanghuai region, while Changchun in Jilin Province recorded localized heavy rain.
For June 11, moderate to heavy rain is expected in southern Tibet, the northern Western Sichuan Plateau, western and southern Yunnan, Hainan, and Taiwan Island. Localized extreme downpours of up to 150 millimeters are possible in parts of Yunnan and south-central Taiwan, accompanied by short-duration heavy precipitation and severe convective weather.
Key Period: June 12-14
The most significant weather event will unfold from June 12 to 14, when a new round of heavy rainfall sweeps across southern China. As reported by People’s Daily Online, the affected areas will include Guizhou, Sichuan, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi.
Rainfall intensity during this period is expected to range from moderate to heavy, with some areas experiencing torrential rain and localized extreme downpours reaching up to 180 millimeters on June 13. The weather system will be accompanied by thunderstorm gales and severe convective weather, raising concerns about flash floods and geological disasters.
Meteorological experts cited by China News Service have urged residents in affected areas to remain vigilant against secondary disasters such as flash floods and landslides, advising the public to avoid mountainous areas, river valleys, and low-lying dangerous areas, and to plan travel accordingly.
Thunderstorms in the North
While southern China braces for heavy rain, northern regions face a different but equally hazardous weather pattern. From June 11 to 13, Northeast China, North China (including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region), and eastern Huanghuai will experience frequent scattered thundershowers.
The rainfall distribution will be uneven — generally light to moderate rain — but localized heavy to torrential rain is possible. Authorities have warned of the risk of thunderstorm gales, hail, and severe convective weather in these areas.
Wind and Maritime Conditions
The weather bulletin also forecasts strong winds across several regions. Inner Mongolia will experience winds of 4 to 5 Beaufort on June 12, increasing to 4 to 6 Beaufort on June 13. Eastern Xinjiang could see winds of 6 to 7 Beaufort on June 13. At sea, the southern East China Sea, Beibu Gulf, Taiwan Strait, and parts of the South China Sea will experience 5 to 6 Beaufort winds with gusts up to 7 Beaufort.
The Dragon Boat Water Context
The heavy rainfall forecast comes during the traditional “Dragon Boat Water” season, a meteorological phenomenon that typically affects southern China from late May to mid-June. As noted by Guangzhou Daily, this period is characterized by increased precipitation due to the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and tropical systems. The name derives from the Dragon Boat Festival (端午节), which falls from June 13 to 15 this year.
The timing is particularly significant as the Dragon Boat Festival weekend — a major holiday period involving outdoor events, dragon boat races, and travel — coincides with the peak of the forecast rainfall. This raises concerns about potential disruptions to holiday activities and transportation.
Broader Implications
The forecast is part of a broader pattern of extreme weather affecting China in 2026. Southern China experienced persistent heavy rainfall in late May, with multiple regions activating flood control emergency responses. Guizhou raised its flood control response from Level IV to Level III following extreme downpours in mid-May.
June is also a critical period for rice cultivation in southern China, and heavy rainfall could damage crops and delay planting. Major cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and those in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region face urban waterlogging risks.
What to Watch For
Residents across affected areas should monitor official warnings from the National Meteorological Centre as the situation develops. The agency may issue orange or red alerts if rainfall intensity escalates. Local governments in high-risk areas are expected to implement flood control measures and, where necessary, evacuation plans. With the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, travelers should check weather conditions before planning trips to southern or northern China over the coming days.