Oil Prices Surge Past $95 After New US Strikes on Iran
Oil prices surged past $95 per barrel for the international Brent benchmark on June 11, 2026, following a second consecutive day of US military strikes on Iran. The price increase, which saw Brent crude gain more than 2% overnight, reflects escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed fears over the blockade of the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, according to Het Laatste Nieuws.
Context: Three Months of Conflict
The current crisis began in March 2026 when President Donald Trump initiated military strikes on Iran, triggering three months of escalating attacks across the Middle East. The conflict has expanded to involve Israel, with Iran firing rockets at Israel for the first time in two months on June 8. A brief ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 9 had sent oil prices tumbling below $90, but the respite proved short-lived.
Key Developments
On June 11, US forces carried out a second day of strikes on Iranian targets, with President Trump threatening further attacks if no agreement is signed. Iran responded by declaring the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20-30% of the world’s crude oil passes — completely closed again, though the US military disputed this claim.
According to Crypto-Insiders, analysts at ING warned that the risks for oil prices are “mainly on the upside,” especially as the world heads into a period of traditionally increasing oil demand. US WTI crude approached $93 per barrel during the same trading session.
Despite the surge, prices remain well below the peaks seen at the start of the Middle East war, when Brent topped $100 per barrel in March. Analysts attribute this to reduced demand from China and record US oil exports, which have helped stabilize markets.
Impact on Belgian Consumers
The sustained conflict has had a direct impact on Belgian households. Diesel prices reached a historic peak of €2.489 per liter in early April 2026, up from approximately €1.70 before the conflict. Gasoline (95 E10) surpassed €2 per liter in May 2026 for the first time since July 2022. The Belgian Federal Public Service Economy regularly adjusts maximum fuel prices based on international oil product quotations.
Broader Economic Ripple Effects
The oil price surge is feeding through to broader inflation. NU.nl reported that US inflation rose to 4.2% in May 2026 (year-over-year), driven primarily by an 8.8% monthly increase in gasoline prices. This marks the highest inflation reading since April 2023, complicating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
European gas prices have also risen significantly, from approximately €32 per megawatt-hour before the war to around €47 in late May 2026. Airline tickets are 12.3% more expensive than a year earlier due to higher kerosene prices. The World Bank has expressed serious concerns about food affordability in developing countries, where rising energy costs are driving up food prices.
Analysis: A Volatile Road Ahead
The oil market remains highly sensitive to every twist in US-Iran relations. The Institute for Energy Research noted that North America’s growing production strength provides meaningful resilience against prolonged supply shocks, with markets pricing in a multi-week disruption rather than an indefinite crisis. However, the Strait of Hormuz blockade remains the single most critical factor for global oil supply.
Any credible progress toward a ceasefire or diplomatic agreement could trigger sharp price drops, as seen on May 25 and June 9 when Brent fell more than 4% on peace hopes. Conversely, further escalation could push prices back above the $100 threshold.
What to Watch Next
Several key uncertainties hang over the market: whether the US and Iran can reach a diplomatic agreement; how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked; whether OPEC+ will increase production to compensate for supply losses; and how China’s reduced oil demand will affect global prices. For Belgian consumers, the outlook remains challenging, with fuel and energy costs likely to stay elevated as long as the conflict continues.