Trump Loses Ground With Independents and Blue-Collar Base as Economy Sours
President Donald Trump is facing a significant erosion of political support among two critical constituencies — independent voters and blue-collar white voters — as persistent inflation, falling real wages, and the economic toll of the Iran war reshape the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
New analysis from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that Trump’s support among independents has dropped from 43% during the 2024 election period to roughly 26% this spring — a decline of 17 percentage points. The erosion was documented across 21 survey waves involving nearly 5,000 independents, and the drop was particularly steep among those without a college degree.
“Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” said Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis. “The gains Trump appeared to make during the election, I don’t know if they’re sticking around. From our research, they don’t appear to be permanent gains.”
The Education Gap That Vanished
One of the most striking findings is the collapse of Trump’s advantage among non-college-educated independents. During the 2024 election period, 48% of independents without a college degree viewed Trump favorably, compared to 29% of college-educated independents. By spring 2026, both groups had converged at roughly 25% support, erasing what had been a significant education gap.
Sean Collins, a research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis, described the finding as surprising. “The decline among no-college independents was steeper and it was greater than the slight decline in college independents,” he said. “That was surprising, especially given, when you think of Trump’s coalitions, those without college degrees is usually one of the ones that stands out.”
Blue-Collar White Voters Shift
A parallel analysis by The New York Times documented what it called an “extraordinary swing” among white working-class voters on the economy. In 2018, these voters approved of Trump’s economic handling by a margin of +30 points. Today, polls show disapproval ratings ranging from 14 to 30 points — a swing of 44 to 60 points.
“Today, that once-deep reservoir of good will has largely evaporated,” wrote Shane Goldmacher, a New York Times political correspondent. “Blue-collar white voters are, for the first time, seriously doubting Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy.”
Republican pollster John McLaughlin, who previously worked with Trump, warned that losing this demographic would be devastating for the party. “It’s critical,” he said. “If they don’t [keep them], we lose the House and the Senate.”
The Economic Roots of Discontent
The erosion in support is driven overwhelmingly by economic anxiety. Inflation has risen above 4% for the first time in three years, fueled by elevated gas prices linked to the ongoing Iran war. Real wages are falling even as Wall Street wealth surges — a disparity symbolized by Elon Musk becoming the world’s first trillionaire following the SpaceX IPO.
According to AP-NORC polling, only about 30% of independents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, and just 12% approve of his handling of the cost of living. Roughly 80% of independents describe the U.S. economy as “poor.”
Annette Dombrowski, a three-time Trump voter from Ohio who now faces losing her janitorial job, expressed the frustration shared by many. “It’s not an overnight thing, but it’s been two years now,” she said. “You said you’d bring down the grocery prices. Literally, I must be the most angry person when I grocery shop because I buy the same things every week and I see it jump every week.”
Broader Coalition Strain
The decline is not limited to any single demographic. Hispanic independents — a group Trump actively courted in 2024 — saw their favorable views of the president collapse from 46% during the election to 15% during the government shutdown last fall, recovering only to about 25% by spring. Support among young independents aged 18-29 dropped from 42% to 25%.
Trump’s overall net approval rating now stands at -18.7 according to the Silver Bulletin average, worse than both his first-term rating (-11.2) and Joe Biden’s (-13.5) at comparable points. His net approval on the economy has dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term.
Midterm Implications
With all House seats and one-third of Senate seats up for election in November, the erosion of Trump’s coalition poses a direct threat to Republican control of Congress. Democrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot by 7 points, and CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten has described the party as being in the “strongest position” for a midterm victory in decades.
“The gains Trump appeared to make during the election, I don’t know if they’re sticking around,” Torres said. The data increasingly suggests they are not.
This article was compiled from reporting by the Associated Press, AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and The New York Times.