Vlaams Belang Surges Past N-VA in New Flanders Poll

A major new political poll in Belgium has confirmed a significant shift in Flanders’ political landscape, with the radical-right Vlaams Belang surging to 26.6% and becoming the largest party in the region, while the governing N-VA has fallen to its lowest score since the June 2024 federal elections. The “Grote Peiling” (Great Poll), conducted by Ipsos for HLN, VTM Nieuws, RTL, and Le Soir between June 1 and 9 among 2,605 Belgians, reveals a widening 4.5-point gap between the two rival Flemish nationalist parties, according to De Morgen.

The Numbers: A Clear Shift to the Right

Vlaams Belang, led by Tom Van Grieken, now commands 26.6% of the Flemish vote, up sharply from 21.8% in the 2024 elections. The N-VA of Prime Minister Bart De Wever has fallen to 22.1-22.3%, down from approximately 25.6% in 2024. Further back, Vooruit (12.9%) and CD&V (12.6%) are locked in a battle for third place, while the far-left PVDA hovers near 10%. Groen (7.0%) and Anders (formerly Open VLD, at 6.9%) bring up the rear, as HLN reported.

The De Wever Paradox

Despite his party’s decline, Bart De Wever remains the most popular politician in Flanders — roughly one in three Flemings still feel best represented by the prime minister. Tom Van Grieken follows at 16%, with Vooruit leader Conner Rousseau at 7%. This dynamic mirrors the fate of former Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, whose personal popularity remained high even as his Open VLD party collapsed in 2024.

Van Grieken explicitly draws this parallel, telling HLN that “De Wever is becoming the Verhofstadt of his generation” — a reference to former PM Guy Verhofstadt, who remained personally popular while his party declined. “He has the talent to create the perception that he stands apart from his own government,” Van Grieken said. “The VAT reform is, according to him, an ugly camel, even though he negotiated that reform himself.”

Cracks in the Armor

The poll represents the first sustained sign that N-VA’s electoral armor is weakening. While the party had previously compensated for losses on its right flank by attracting centrist voters from Anders and CD&V, that strategy appears to have reached its limit. The government’s austerity measures and painful reforms — including a controversial VAT reform struck down by the Council of State in February — have taken a toll.

Only 35% of Flemings and 25% of Walloons still have confidence in the De Wever government, according to the poll. N-VA chairwoman Valerie Van Peel downplayed the results, stating: “Three weeks ago it was the other way around. Next week it will be something else again. We keep working and that’s the only thing that matters.”

Van Grieken’s Dual Strategy

Vlaams Belang is pursuing a carefully calibrated approach. Rather than attacking De Wever personally — a risky strategy given his enduring popularity — the party is focusing on linking the prime minister to his government’s unpopular policies. “Purchasing power and migration are the two points we keep hammering on,” Van Grieken said. “The N-VA voter did not vote for more taxes and more migration.”

Crucially, Van Grieken is broadening the party’s appeal beyond its traditional migration focus. “On migration, we are already top of mind; on the socio-economic front, we want to be that too,” he said. The party has also benefited from a ban on political advertising on social media, which has frozen the playing field and allowed Vlaams Belang’s large organic following — 626,000 on Facebook alone — to give it an outsized reach.

Wallonia and Brussels: A Tale of Three Regions

The poll reveals starkly divergent political trajectories across Belgium’s three regions. In Wallonia, the Socialist Party (PS) dominates at 29%, up 7 points from 2024, while the liberal MR — part of the governing Arizona coalition — has collapsed from its historic 28.2% to 20.1%. The far-left PVDA-PTB has surged to 16.8%.

In Brussels, PVDA-PTB is now the largest party at 26.3%, up nearly 10 points, while the MR-led coalition has fallen by a third to 15.1%. The clientelism scandal in Anderlecht does not yet appear to have damaged the socialists.

The Cordon Sanitaire Question

Vlaams Belang’s continued rise — it has now been the largest party in Flanders in multiple polls since September 2025 — puts increasing pressure on Belgium’s “cordon sanitaire,” the agreement among mainstream parties to exclude the radical right from government. With the party polling at levels that would entitle it to a major governing role in a normal parliamentary democracy, the question of how long the cordon can hold is becoming increasingly urgent.

What to Watch

Van Grieken warns that the government will need to find an additional €7 billion in savings, which could further erode support for the coalition. The EU migration pact is also expected to become a defining issue that could shift more voters toward Vlaams Belang. For N-VA, the challenge is whether it can stabilize its support through policy achievements — or whether the decline that has now begun will prove as relentless as the one that consumed Open VLD before it.