MR Loses One-Third of Voters as Walloons Turn on Bouchez

Belgium’s Mouvement Réformateur (MR), the Francophone liberal party led by Georges-Louis Bouchez, has suffered a dramatic collapse in voter support, losing roughly one-third of its electorate since its historic 2024 election victory, according to the latest “De Grote Peiling” survey published by Het Laatste Nieuws. The party has fallen from 28.2% in the June 2024 elections to just 20.1% in Wallonia and 15.1% in Brussels, raising serious questions about Bouchez’s leadership and the party’s long-term trajectory.

A Dramatic Reversal

Just two years ago, Bouchez achieved what was widely described as a political earthquake. The MR swept to victory on a platform promising more security, lower taxes, and greater purchasing power — a sharp break from the socialist dominance that had characterized Walloon politics for decades. The party attracted not only traditional liberal voters but also protest voters and former socialist supporters disillusioned with the PS.

Today, that coalition has fractured. According to the poll — a collaborative effort between RTBF, VRT, and De Standaard conducted by the University of Antwerp and ULB — the MR would barely be the third party in Wallonia, trailing behind the PS (24.9%) and barely ahead of Les Engagés (19.3%) and the surging PTB (18.6%). In Brussels, the situation is even more dire: the MR has fallen to 14.2%, while the far-left PTB has become the largest party in the capital at 24.4%, as RTBF reported.

Why Voters Are Leaving

Analysts point to a combination of unfulfilled economic promises and Bouchez’s polarizing leadership style as the primary drivers of the decline.

Bouchez campaigned on tax cuts and improved purchasing power, but external economic shocks — particularly tensions in the Middle East driving up fuel prices — have prevented those promises from materializing. Wallonia, where average incomes are significantly lower than in Flanders, has felt the impact disproportionately. Trust in the Walloon government led by MR’s Adrien Dolimont has halved since September 2024 to just 22%, according to the poll data.

Voter migration patterns reveal the depth of the discontent. Nearly a quarter of current Les Engagés voters previously supported MR, as VRT NWS detailed. Some 13% of those who would now vote for the far-left PTB also come from the liberal camp. The MR retains only about 57% of its 2024 voters in Brussels, with significant defections to abstention and undecided voters as well.

The Bouchez Factor

Bouchez’s confrontational communication style has become a growing liability. Known for his harsh rhetoric, he does not hesitate to attack opponents and coalition partners alike. As the most right-wing party in Wallonia, MR must also cover the far-right flank, creating a polarization that alienates moderate centrist voters.

“Part of the explanation may lie with the party chairman,” noted Fleur Mees, political journalist at HLN. “Bouchez’s communication is often harsh. For moderate center voters, this polarization may be a bridge too far.”

Despite the dismal poll numbers, Bouchez has shown no signs of moderating his approach. At the party’s 180th anniversary celebration on June 14, he declared defiantly: “In 2029, we will win the elections.” The party appears to be betting that the promised tax cuts will become tangible in voters’ wallets within three years, as VRT NWS reported.

A Broader Liberal Crisis

The MR’s decline is compounded by tensions within the broader liberal family. Bouchez has repeatedly speculated about establishing an MR branch in Flanders, a move viewed as hostile by the Flemish sister party Anders (formerly Open Vld). Anders chairman Frédéric De Gucht had previously warned: “If Bouchez wants war, then we will wage war.”

At the 180th anniversary event, a temporary truce was declared. De Gucht was invited at the last minute and called for unity: “If we join hands, if the liberal forces of this country form one front against populism, then we are unstoppable.” But Bouchez notably did not mention De Gucht or Anders in his own 20-minute speech.

What Lies Ahead

The poll represents a significant shift in Belgian Francophone politics. The MR’s 2024 victory was seen as a potential realignment of Wallonia away from its traditional socialist leanings. The rapid reversal suggests that realignment was fragile and heavily dependent on economic performance.

With the PS recovering to 24.9% and the PTB surging to 18.6%, Wallonia is shifting leftward once again. The MR’s reserve of potential voters — those who might consider voting liberal — is the lowest of any major party at just 12.3%. The party faces an uphill battle to rebuild trust before the next federal elections in 2029.

For now, Bouchez remains defiant. Whether his bet on long-term government dividends pays off — or whether the exodus of voters continues — will define the future of Belgian liberalism.