US and Iran Reach Preliminary Deal to Open Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement expected to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, bringing a measure of relief after nearly four months of devastating conflict. However, the deal defers the most contentious issues—including Iran’s nuclear program and the war in Lebanon—to further negotiations, leaving critical questions unresolved.

The announcement was made simultaneously on June 14–15 by U.S. President Donald Trump via Truth Social, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on X, and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi on state television, as reported by the Associated Press. A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Geneva, Switzerland, and the strait will not reopen until the deal is signed.

Context and Background

The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran, killing its supreme leader and top military officials, according to Wikipedia. Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas once passed—and launching missile and drone strikes against Israel and U.S. bases in the region.

The war sent global energy prices skyrocketing and disrupted supply chains worldwide. Multiple rounds of negotiations, including the Islamabad Talks in April, failed to produce a lasting agreement. A two-week ceasefire in April was repeatedly violated by both sides, and Trump subsequently imposed a naval blockade on Iran.

According to Al Jazeera, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

Key Developments

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country served as the primary mediator with support from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, announced the deal on X, stating that both sides had declared “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the agreement but said Iran would not begin implementing it until the deal is formally signed. Preparatory meetings are set for Doha, Qatar, before the Geneva signing.

Oil markets reacted swiftly to the news. Brent crude fell approximately 4% to around $83 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped to roughly $80.80. However, energy experts caution that even after the deal is signed, it could take weeks or months for energy companies to resume full operations and for mines planted in the strait to be cleared.

Analysis and Implications

The Nuclear Question

The agreement gives just 60 days to resolve what to do about Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, as detailed by the Associated Press. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018, took years to negotiate. The compressed timeline raises serious questions about whether a meaningful nuclear agreement can be reached.

Israel’s Position

Israel is not a party to the deal, and its position presents a significant complication. Defense Minister Israel Katz has said Israel plans to stay “indefinitely” in approximately 1,000 square kilometers of land it holds in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. Iran has insisted that any agreement must include an end to fighting in Lebanon, creating a fundamental disagreement that could scuttle the broader deal.

Conflicting Narratives

The U.S. and Iran have presented very different versions of what the memorandum of understanding contains. Iran claims it includes an end to the Lebanon war, release of $24 billion in frozen assets, and Iranian service charges on strait passage. The U.S. denies these terms. This trust deficit is compounded by Trump’s history of claiming deals were imminent—he has made approximately 40 such claims during the conflict—only to revert to threats.

Global Reactions

World leaders broadly welcomed the agreement. French President Emmanuel Macron called for its “swift and full implementation by all parties,” while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described it as a “hugely important step forward in ending the war.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen cautioned that “there can be no peace in the Middle East while Lebanon is in flames.”

Vice President JD Vance, a key negotiator, said the deal could usher in a “new era” in the Middle East, telling CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that “what the president has done is create the real space to transform that region.”

What’s Next

The immediate focus is on the Geneva signing ceremony on Friday. Even if the deal is signed, significant hurdles remain: clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz, negotiating a nuclear framework within 60 days, reconciling Israel’s military operations in Lebanon with Iran’s demands, and rebuilding trust between parties that have spent months at war.

As Luxembourg Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel cautioned: “It’s a long time till Friday.”

The preliminary agreement represents a fragile but meaningful step toward de-escalation. Whether it leads to lasting peace or merely a temporary pause depends on the negotiations that lie ahead.