At Least 38 Drones Have Crashed on European Soil Since 2022

An investigation by Belgian public broadcaster RTBF has documented at least 38 drone crashes on the soil of non-belligerent European countries since March 2022, with the frequency of incidents accelerating dramatically since mid-2025. The crashes have occurred primarily in Romania, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia — NATO member states whose borders directly adjoin the war in Ukraine.

The most serious incident occurred on May 29, 2026, when a Russian Geran-2 drone struck a 10-story residential building in Galați, Romania, approximately 7 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, injuring two civilians — a 53-year-old woman and her 14-year-old son. According to RTBF, 70 residents were evacuated and the entire explosive payload detonated on impact. Romanian President Nicușor Dan confirmed the drone was part of a group of 43 launched at Ukraine that night.

A Dramatic Acceleration

The data reveals a stark escalation. Between March 2022 and July 2025, just 13 crashes were recorded over roughly three and a half years. From August to December 2025, 10 additional crashes occurred in just five months. Between January and May 2026, 15 more crashes were documented — nearly matching the total of the previous three and a half years in just five months. At the current rate, the 50-crash threshold could be crossed before the end of 2026.

Of the 38 documented crashes, 22 were attributed to Russian drones, 7 to Ukrainian drones, 3 to Belarusian drones, and 6 remained unattributed. Twenty-nine crashes caused no material damage, typically landing in rural or wooded areas, while 9 resulted in material damage, including two deaths in Poland in 2022.

Why Drones Are Crashing on European Soil

Experts identify three primary causes for the incursions. First, construction defects: navigation systems fail, and drones continue until fuel exhaustion, then crash. Second, Ukrainian electronic warfare: Ukraine jams Russian drones to protect sensitive areas, causing them to veer off course across borders. Third, deliberate intent: Russia may intentionally send drones into NATO airspace to test reaction times and observe interceptor launches.

Political scientist Joseph Henrotin, editor-in-chief of Défense & Sécurité Internationale, told RTBF that while the number of drones drifting into European airspace remains “almost anecdotal” compared to the colossal volume of launches — with salvos of more than 500 drones every three days — the political impact is significant. “For the person who receives a drone in their garden, obviously, it’s not at all. And politically, it’s not either,” he said.

Alain De Neve, a researcher at Belgium’s Royal Higher Institute for Defense, explained that Russia is testing NATO’s solidarity. “Russia takes a certain number of liberties in order to test the solidarity of the Atlantic Alliance,” De Neve said. “These are small things but they have their importance: seeing how long an interception takes, where fighters take off from, how they operate, where they end their mission. All of this gives Russia indications of what NATO is capable of — and what it is not capable of.”

NATO’s Response and the Galați Aftermath

In response to the Galați attack, Romania expelled the Russian consul in Constanța and closed the consulate. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated the alliance “stands ready to defend every inch of allied territory,” while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia had “crossed yet another line.”

The Institute for the Study of War assessed that the increasingly frequent incursions indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a reckless policy in which the risk of drones entering Alliance airspace is considered an acceptable side effect of attacks on Ukraine. Putin himself questioned whether the drone was Russian, suggesting Ukrainian origin, while Russian Security Council Vice President Dmitri Medvedev threatened that such incidents “will not be the last.”

NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry in September 2025 to bolster eastern flank defense, with multiple member states contributing aircraft and missile systems. However, challenges remain. As Brigadier General Gheorghe Maxim of the Romanian Armed Forces noted, Romania had only four minutes from detection to impact in Galați and could not intercept over Ukrainian territory. “Ukraine is at war, but Romania is at peace. We cannot launch a projectile into Ukrainian airspace,” he explained.

Europe’s Air Defense Challenge

The European Commission presented its “European Drone Initiative” in autumn 2025, targeting full operational capability by 2027. Belgium is acquiring NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems) for medium-range air defense, and the Port of Antwerp will be equipped with air defense by 2027.

Al Jazeera reported that Romania called for NATO to speed up the transfer of anti-drone capabilities following the Galați incident. However, experts note that European air defense remains largely “to be built” and can only be truly tested under real combat conditions.

What’s Next

The question is no longer whether more drones will crash on European soil, but where and when — and whether the next incident could trigger a broader escalation between NATO and Russia. Alain De Neve warns of a scenario where Russian “ghost fleet” vessels could be equipped with drones to strike critical infrastructure, a scenario driving Belgium’s acquisition of air defense systems.

Each incident brings NATO closer to a potential direct military confrontation with Russia, though both sides have thus far avoided crossing that threshold. With the pace of incursions showing no signs of slowing, the alliance faces mounting pressure to demonstrate that its defensive posture can match the accelerating threat.