US and Iran Sign Preliminary Peace Deal as CIA Casts Doubt on Nuclear Commitments
The United States and Iran have electronically signed a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the 2026 Iran War, President Donald Trump announced on Monday while en route to the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France. The agreement triggered a sharp sell-off in global oil markets — with Brent crude falling below $80 a barrel for the first time since early March — but was immediately overshadowed by intelligence reports that the CIA has “serious doubts” about Iran’s willingness to follow through on nuclear concessions.
The Deal at a Glance
According to a senior US official, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed the MoU for the United States, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf signed on behalf of Iran, as Xinhua News Agency reported. A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Geneva, Switzerland, where Vance, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are expected to attend.
The MoU is described as a framework agreement of approximately 1.5 pages containing 14 points. It commits both parties to at least 60 days of negotiations toward a final peace deal. The White House has stated that the memorandum “guarantees that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon, cannot have highly enriched uranium, and can no longer hold global energy supplies hostage.”
Oil Markets React
The announcement sent shockwaves through energy markets. Fox Business reported that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell over 5% to trade just above $80 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped more than 3.6% to below $80 — its lowest level since early March 2026, when the war began.
Trump declared that the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil passes, “is already partially opened” and will be “completely open” after Friday’s signing. US officials said tanker traffic through the strategic chokepoint will normalize within 30 days, contingent on Iran clearing all mines.
However, BMO US Rates Strategist Vail Hartman cautioned that “the oil shock is not over, and we are not at the point of reviving hopes of interest rate cuts this year. We would need more concrete changes in the macro outlook.”
The CIA Bombshell
The most significant tension in the story emerged almost immediately after Trump’s announcement. CIA Director John Ratcliffe briefed the president and senior officials that US intelligence raises “serious doubts” about Iran’s willingness to make nuclear concessions, according to HLN Belgium, which cited the original Axios scoop.
Internal Iranian discussions reportedly contradict what Iranian officials tell US mediators, raising fundamental questions about whether Tehran intends to follow through on dismantling its nuclear program — the core US objective. A senior US official indicated that Washington will know within two to three weeks whether Iran is serious about nuclear concessions. If not, the process can be stopped.
Internal Administration Divisions
The CIA’s skepticism reveals a notable split within the Trump administration. The pro-deal faction — led by Trump, Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner — has championed the agreement as a historic breakthrough. But the skeptical faction, including Ratcliffe at the CIA, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, has expressed serious concerns in internal discussions about Iran’s intentions.
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has also voiced alarm, stating, “I am somewhat concerned that the Iranian interpretation of the agreement seems different from what the US negotiating team claims.” He has called for immediate publication of the document.
Expert Skepticism
International experts have greeted the deal with deep skepticism. Middle East expert Koert Debeuf of Vrije Universiteit Brussel argued that the framework agreement is worse than the 2015 JCPOA and that “the US has lost this war on all fronts.” Professor David Criekemans of the University of Antwerp called the agreement “a fantastic victory for Iran,” warning that it involves “enormous concessions” from Trump.
Trump has explicitly contrasted this deal with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated under President Obama, calling the earlier agreement “a terrible document.” However, experts note that the current framework is far less detailed — 1.5 pages versus the comprehensive JCPOA — and that Trump may have made more concessions given the US’s wartime position.
Geopolitical Context
The 2026 Iran War formally began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran. The conflict rapidly escalated, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing US inflation to a three-year high in May 2026. Rights group HRANA estimates the conflict has killed 3,291 people in Iran, including 1,455 civilians.
Notably, the MoU does not require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. If Iran cannot control Hezbollah and attacks occur, Israel retains the right to self-defense, according to US officials.
What Happens Next
The formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday will be a critical milestone. Vance will then lead the US into the next phase of negotiations, which are expected to last up to 60 days. During this period, the US will maintain its current military deployment in the Middle East; if a final agreement is reached, Washington would reduce its forces in the region.
The MoU is expected to be published within 24 to 48 hours of Friday’s signing, though Trump has suggested it could come sooner. Key unanswered questions include the specific terms of the 14-point document, whether Iran will genuinely follow through on nuclear dismantlement, and how Israel will respond to a deal that does not address its position in Lebanon.
As The Guardian noted, oil prices remain above pre-war levels of $60–70 a barrel, reflecting continued uncertainty. The Dow Jones hit 52,000 for the first time on Monday, and airline stocks soared on expectations of lower fuel costs — but the market’s optimism may prove premature if the CIA’s doubts prove well-founded.
For now, the world watches Geneva, where the fate of a deal that could reshape the Middle East — or unravel entirely — will be decided.