Belgium’s Painful Truth as NATO Target Rises to 5% of GDP

A new Dutch study has laid bare the scale of the challenge facing Belgium as NATO shifts its defense spending benchmark from 2% to 5% of GDP, according to a report published Wednesday by De Morgen. The study concludes that Belgium faces an “extraordinarily difficult task” to meet the alliance’s new requirements under the so-called “The Hague Pledge.”

Context

Belgium only reached the previous 2% NATO spending target for the first time in 2025, hitting exactly 2.00% of GDP, according to the alliance’s annual report published in March 2026. As HLN reported, all 32 NATO members met the 2% target for the first time. This milestone came after decades of underinvestment — in 2024, Belgium spent just 1.31% of GDP on defense, one of the lowest figures in the alliance alongside Spain and Luxembourg, as documented by Factcheck.vlaanderen.

The Hague Pledge

At the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, member states agreed to a dramatically higher spending framework. The new targets, officially named The Hague Pledge, require:

• 3.5% of GDP for pure military expenditures (core defense)
• 1.5% of GDP for defense-related spending (critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, innovation, civil preparedness)
• Total: 5% of GDP by 2035

The Dutch government confirmed its support for the new norm ahead of the summit, with Prime Minister Schoof stating that “with a war on our continent, our security is no longer a given.” The framework was officially signed by all 32 allies on June 25, 2025.

The Scale of the Challenge

The Dutch study, covered exclusively by De Morgen, quantifies the massive financial gap Belgium must bridge. To reach 3.5% of GDP for core defense by 2035, Belgium would need to approximately double its current defense budget. Estimates suggest this requires finding an additional €16-19 billion annually, based on Belgian GDP of approximately €550-600 billion.

Belgium’s position is particularly delicate because it hosts NATO’s headquarters in Brussels and SHAPE (Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe) in Mons, making its underinvestment a persistent source of diplomatic friction.

Political Reactions

Prime Minister Bart De Wever (N-VA) initially described a 5% NATO norm as “completely crazy” two months before the Hague summit, as De Standaard reported. Yet Belgium ultimately did not oppose the new norm, reflecting intense diplomatic pressure on the host nation of NATO’s headquarters.

Defense Minister Theo Francken (N-VA) has taken a more forward-leaning position. “Whoever thinks Belgium can stay at 2% is fooling themselves,” Francken stated in April 2026, signaling that the government recognizes the need for increased expenditure.

Budgetary Constraints

The Belgian government has already allocated €4 billion in additional defense spending for 2026, with further increases planned. However, Belgium faces significant fiscal headwinds. The “Arizona” coalition government — comprising N-VA, MR, Vooruit, CD&V, and Les Engagés — is simultaneously trying to reduce the budget deficit to 4% of GDP by 2029 while managing public debt that exceeds 100% of GDP.

As NOS noted, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte designed the split framework (3.5% core + 1.5% supporting) specifically to make the higher target more palatable for member states by allowing them to count a broader range of expenditures.

Analysis and Implications

The Dutch origin of the study adds a Benelux dimension to the story. The Netherlands, which reached 2.05% of GDP in defense spending in 2025, is in a position to critique its southern neighbor, potentially affecting bilateral relations within the Benelux union.

For Belgium, the core conflict is clear: after finally achieving the 2% target following years of underperformance, the goalposts have moved to 3.5-5%. The De Wever government faces a difficult balancing act between NATO expectations, coalition politics, and fiscal reality. Finding an additional €8-10 billion annually for defense would require either deep cuts to social programs, tax increases, or further deficit spending — none of which are politically straightforward.

What’s Next

With the 2035 deadline still nine years away, Belgium has time to phase in the increases. However, the Dutch study serves as an urgent wake-up call, quantifying the gap between current spending and future requirements. The coming months will reveal whether the Belgian government can chart a credible path toward the new NATO norms while maintaining fiscal discipline and coalition unity.

Key questions remain unanswered: How will the government fund the additional spending? What specific timeline has Belgium proposed for reaching 3.5%? And what consequences might follow if Belgium fails to meet the new targets? The answers will shape not only Belgium’s defense posture but also its standing within the alliance it hosts.