El Niño Now Official: Risk of Super-El Niño Grows to 63%

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the risk of it escalating into a “super-El Niño” has surged to 63% — nearly double what it was just two weeks ago. The climate phenomenon, which disrupts weather patterns worldwide, is expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-2027.

What Happened

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center declared the arrival of El Niño on June 11, 2026, after sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific crossed the critical threshold of 0.5°C above average. According to the latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, there is now a 63% chance that El Niño will become “very strong” — with sea surface temperatures exceeding 2°C above average — between November 2026 and January 2027. Two weeks prior, that probability stood at just 33%.

The rapid escalation has alarmed scientists. The Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature index set new daily records for 16 consecutive days as of June 15, 2026, with current SST reaching approximately 29.3°C — nearly 2°C warmer than normal and almost a full degree warmer than the previous record, according to climate commentator Prof. Eliot Jacobson.

Red Cross Sounds the Alarm

The humanitarian implications are already prompting pre-emptive action. The Red Cross issued a global warning on June 16, pre-positioning food, water, and hygiene supplies in at-risk regions, particularly in Africa.

“Drought causes failed harvests and drives up food prices, which are already high due to expensive fuel and fertilizer,” said Harm Goossens, Director of the Dutch Red Cross. The organization is distributing drought-resistant seeds, filling water tanks ahead of dry spells, and preparing evacuations from flood-prone areas.

Global Temperature Boost

El Niño temporarily pushes global temperatures higher, with effects expected to become visible in statistics next year and next winter. The previous El Niño (2023-2024) coincided with the two hottest years on record. This time, the phenomenon is “riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming,” as Adam Scaife, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office, told BBC News. “This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented.”

The World Meteorological Organization’s Secretary-General Celeste Saulo called for preparation for “a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “El Niño will pour oil on a burning world.”

Economic Stakes

The economic consequences could be severe. Previous strong El Niños caused global income losses of $4.1 trillion (1982-83) and $5.7 trillion (1997-98). Experts cited by Smithsonian Magazine warn this could become the costliest El Niño on record, with disruptions to staple crops like rice, soy, and cotton potentially triggering global food price inflation.

“We know from observations that El Niños can cost the global economy trillions of dollars in damages and lost productivity,” Justin Mankin, a climate researcher at Dartmouth College, told USA Today. “These costs accrue over years and disproportionately impact countries whose weather and climate is most tied to El Niño.”

Regional Impacts

Typical El Niño effects include drought in Central Africa, Australia, Indonesia, India, and northern Brazil, alongside heavy rainfall and flooding in Ecuador, Peru, the southern United States, and East Africa. The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below-normal, while Pacific typhoon activity may increase.

For Europe, including Belgium, the link is less clear. VRT weatherman Bram Verbruggen noted that studies show no clear, consistent effect on European weather, though some models suggest possible weather blockages that could lead to prolonged dry or wet periods.

What to Watch

Scientists will closely monitor NOAA’s monthly ENSO updates, WMO seasonal outlooks, and Red Cross humanitarian assessments from Africa and Asia. With a 90% probability that El Niño will exceed 1.5°C above average by next winter — and some models projecting an unprecedented 3°C anomaly — the coming months will be critical for preparation and response.

The strongest recorded El Niños occurred in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. The current event has the potential to surpass them all.