California Billionaire Tax Proposal Set to Qualify for November Ballot

A proposed one-time 5% tax on California billionaires has gathered sufficient signatures to qualify for the November 2026 ballot, setting the stage for a high-stakes political battle that has fractured traditional Democratic alliances and pitted Silicon Valley’s wealthiest residents against a powerful healthcare workers union.

The measure, backed by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), would impose a tax on individuals whose net worth exceeds $1 billion as of January 1, 2026. Proponents estimate it could generate approximately $100 billion to offset deep federal healthcare cuts, with 90% of revenue directed to Medi-Cal and other healthcare programs and the remaining 10% allocated to education and food assistance, according to AP News.

Background: The Federal Trigger

The proposal is a direct response to the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” signed by President Donald Trump in 2025, which is projected to cut more than $1 trillion over a decade from Medicaid and federal food assistance programs. The California Budget and Policy Center estimates the state could lose $30 billion in federal funding annually for Medicaid, potentially causing up to 3.4 million people to lose coverage. Roughly 14 million Californians rely on Medi-Cal, the state’s Medicaid program.

“If we do not do this, millions of people are going to lose health care, an untold number of people will go without treatment and there will be tragedy after tragedy,” Dave Regan, president of SEIU-UHW, told AP News when the campaign launched in October 2025.

How the Tax Would Work

The California Billionaire Tax Act would apply to an estimated 200 to 250 billionaires residing in the state. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates the measure would generate tens of billions of dollars in the first few years, though income tax revenues could subsequently decline by hundreds of millions annually if wealthy residents leave. Billionaires could pay the tax in a lump sum or spread payments over five years with an additional 7.5% annual fee on unpaid balances, as CalMatters reports.

Proponents submitted 1.55 million signatures — nearly double the roughly 875,000 required — and Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a Democrat, confirmed the measure has sufficient support. It will officially qualify on June 25, 2026, unless proponents withdraw it before then. A simple majority vote would be needed to pass in November.

The Unlikely Opposition Coalition

Perhaps the most striking aspect of this story is the unusual alliance forming against the tax. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has long opposed wealth taxes, is leading the charge. “I’ll do what I have to do to protect the state,” Newsom said in a Business Insider interview, arguing the tax would drive innovation and wealthy residents out of California.

But Newsom is far from alone. An unlikely coalition of progressive groups — including Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, the California Teachers Association, and the California Medical Association — has joined forces with Silicon Valley billionaires to oppose the measure. These groups argue that a one-time tax does not provide sustainable, ongoing revenue and could jeopardize efforts to extend the existing “millionaire’s tax” on high earners, which is set to expire in 2030.

“The very folks that it’s supposed to help aren’t supporting it,” Francisco Silva, president of the California Primary Care Association, told GV Wire / The New York Times.

Newsom’s chief of staff, Nathan Barankin, framed the opposition strategically: “This is not going to be, ‘Billionaires killed this wealth tax’ if it appears on the November ballot. It’s going to be Planned Parenthood, doctors, teachers and labor killed it.”

The Billionaire Exodus Debate

A central point of contention is whether the tax will drive wealthy residents out of California. Google co-founder Sergey Brin, with a net worth of approximately $300 billion, has reportedly moved to Nevada and contributed $82 million to “Building a Better California,” a committee funding countermeasures designed to blunt the tax. Other tech titans, including Eric Schmidt, John Doerr, and Stewart Resnick, have also donated millions to opposition efforts. Collectively, opposition campaigns have raised $107.9 million as of June 15, according to state campaign finance data.

Critics point to reports that Larry Page and Mark Zuckerberg have also left the state. Fortune reported that only six billionaires moved out of state last year before the proposed tax would apply, but their collective worth would have generated $27 billion in state revenue.

Supporters counter that there is no evidence a majority of the state’s roughly 200 billionaires are leaving. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, whose estimated net worth of $155-162 billion would subject him to roughly $8 billion in taxes, told Bloomberg Television he is “perfectly fine” with the proposal. “We chose to live in Silicon Valley, and whatever taxes they would like to apply, so be it,” Huang said, as reported by Kiplinger.

The June 25 Deadline

Newsom is reportedly negotiating a last-minute deal to pull the measure before the ballot is finalized on June 25. A grand compromise could involve other ballot measures on taxes and healthcare, as well as potential tax increases the Legislature could approve as part of the state budget. State lawmakers passed budget bills this week that aim to raise revenue in other ways, including extending a tax on healthcare providers.

Opponents have also qualified two countermeasures for the ballot: the Retirement and Personal Savings Protection Act, which would prohibit new state taxes on personal property and effectively cancel the billionaire tax if both measures pass, and the Improving Transparency, Effectiveness and Efficiency in California Government Act, which would require audits of state programs funded by special taxes.

Legal and Political Hurdles

Even if the measure passes, it will likely face constitutional challenges over its retroactive nature — the tax applies to those who were California residents as of Jan. 1, 2026, even if they have since left the state. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy has produced an expert report arguing the tax is constitutional, but lawsuits are widely expected.

Early polling shows 50% of voters favor the initiative, according to a UC Berkeley Citrin Center-POLITICO poll, though 54% expressed concern about wealthy individuals leaving the state and 63% about businesses leaving. Campaign experts note that early polling typically overestimates support, which tends to dwindle as elections approach.

What’s Next

With the June 25 certification deadline looming, all eyes are on Newsom’s negotiations. If a deal cannot be reached, California voters will face a stark choice in November: impose a historic tax on the state’s wealthiest residents to fund healthcare, or risk the consequences of a billionaire exodus that could reshape the state’s fiscal future. Either way, the outcome will have profound implications for California’s economy, its healthcare system, and the national debate over wealth taxation.