Belgium Energy Excise Reform: Who Pays and Who Saves?
Belgian households face a mixed financial impact from a major energy excise reform taking effect on August 1, 2026, after months of parliamentary delays. The reform, adopted by the Chamber on May 29, 2026, shifts taxation away from electricity and onto fossil fuels — natural gas and heating oil — in a bid to encourage electrification and align with EU climate goals. According to RTBF, an interactive calculator has been launched to help residents estimate their personal cost.
What Is Changing and Why
The reform restructures excise duties — fixed taxes per unit of energy consumed, distinct from VAT — through annual adjustments running until 2029. Electricity excises will fall from 50.33 €/MWh in 2025 to 38 €/MWh by 2029. Meanwhile, gas excises will rise from 8.72 €/MWh to 13.60 €/MWh, and heating oil (mazout) from 17.3 € per 1,000 litres to 26 € per 1,000 litres.
The policy rationale is clear: electricity in Belgium currently costs 4.15 times more than gas, one of the highest ratios in Europe. This discourages households from switching to heat pumps and other electric heating. By narrowing the gap to an estimated 3.8 times by 2029, the government hopes to make electrification more economically attractive.
Winners and Losers by Heating Type
The impact varies dramatically depending on how a home is heated. According to the RTBF calculator and analysis by economist Philippe Defeyt of the Institut pour un Développement Durable (IDD), the amounts involved are relatively modest — in the range of tens of euros per year.
Gas heating (65% of Belgian households): Net increase. A family of four in a semi-detached house with gas heating will pay approximately 16 € more per year by 2029. For a typical 17,000 kWh gas bill, excises rise from 143 € to around 218 €.
Heating oil: Mixed results. A couple in a detached house with oil heating may see a net decrease of 16 € per year by 2029, thanks to larger electricity savings offsetting modest oil tax increases.
Heat pumps: Clear winners. A family of four in a semi-detached house with a heat pump saves approximately 90 € per year by 2029, benefiting from lower electricity excises without any fossil fuel exposure.
Social tariff beneficiaries: Protected across the board. Those on the social tariff see electricity excises reduced to just 1 €/MWh, with minimal gas increases, resulting in net savings of 40-80 € per year regardless of heating type.
A Tax Increase in Disguise?
Consumer organization Test-Achats has been critical, warning that gas excises rise more than electricity excises fall, making this a net tax increase rather than a simple transfer. “Isolated price increases, without a broader policy framework, are unacceptable and jeopardize the energy transition,” the organization stated.
Economist Philippe Defeyt offers a more measured view, describing the sums as “finally tiny” (“riquiqui”) and likely to be lost in broader energy price fluctuations. He argues that the real driver of electrification is the price level, not tax changes — when heating oil prices spiked, families turned to heat pumps naturally.
Opposition parties have also voiced strong criticism. Nabil Boukili, PTB federal deputy, told RTBF that “in the midst of soaring energy prices, the government decides to increase excise duties, when it should be reducing them.” He called for taxing the superprofits of oil multinationals instead.
State Revenue and Broader Context
The reform carries a significant fiscal dimension. By 2029, the state will gain approximately 365 million € in additional revenue from gas excises and 28 million € from heating oil, while losing about 170 million € from electricity — a net tax increase. The Finance Committee approved the measure in March 2026, with the government arguing the revenue is needed to meet budget targets.
The reform is also partly driven by an EU obligation to return VAT on fossil fuels to 21% by 2030 (currently 6%). The government chose to phase this in gradually through excise adjustments rather than an abrupt VAT hike.
What to Watch For
From 2028, fossil fuels will face additional cost pressure from the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS2) for buildings and road transport, potentially compounding the impact of the excise changes. Whether the reform actually changes consumer behavior remains an open question. The modest scale of the adjustments — tens of euros per year — raises doubts about whether the tax signal is strong enough to drive meaningful fuel switching, especially without a broader policy package including insulation support and heat pump subsidies.
The first phase takes effect on August 1, 2026, with annual adjustments continuing through 2029. Belgian households can use the RTBF calculator to estimate their personal impact.